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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty and inequality in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Huesca

    (Centro de Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo, México)

  • Linda Llamas

    (Universidad Estatal de Sonora, México)

  • H. Xavier Jara

    (University of Essex, U.K.)

  • César O. Vargas Téllez

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México)

  • David Rodríguez

    (Universidad Externado de Colombia, Colombia)

Abstract

Objetivo: medir el efecto de la pandemia COVID-19 en el empleo, la pobreza y la desigualdad en México. Metodología: se emplea un modelo probit para identificar a las personas en riesgo de perder el empleo, cuyos ingresos se establecen en cero en la ENIGH 2018 para coincidir con los cambios en el empleo y los ingresos observados entre diciembre de 2019 y mayo de 2020 según las encuestas ENOE y ETOE, respectivamente. MEXMOD, el modelo de microsimulación de México, se utiliza para simular las políticas de impuestos y transferencias basadas en los escenarios pre-COVID y COVID. Resultados: una pérdida de 12.1 millones de empleos, la pobreza llegó al 60.16%, la pobreza extrema al 29.73% y la desigualdad creció un 8.2%. Recomiendaciones: fortalecer la política social con mayor recaudación (gravando a los ricos) para una mayor redistribución. Limitación: la distribución del ingreso se mantiene constante al no contar con la ENIGH 2020. Originalidad: se ofrece medidas oportunas de pobreza y desigualdad utilizando técnicas de microsimulación para superar la falta de datos durante la pandemia. Conclusión: no existen estabilizadores automáticos para combatir los efectos negativos de COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Huesca & Linda Llamas & H. Xavier Jara & César O. Vargas Téllez & David Rodríguez, 2021. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty and inequality in Mexico," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, Julio - S.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:16:y:2021:i:3:a:10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xavier Jara & Lourdes Montesdeoca & Iva V. Tasseva, 2021. "The role of automatic stabilizers and emergency tax-benefit policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-4, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Cristina Arancibia & Mariana Dondo & Xavier Jara & David Macas & Nicolás Oliva & Rebeca Riella & David Rodríguez & Joana Urraburu, 2019. "Income redistribution in Latin America: A microsimulation approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-1, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Olivier Bargain & H. Xavier Jara & David Rodriguez, 2017. "Learning from your neighbor: tax-benefit systems swaps in Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(4), pages 369-392, December.
    4. Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez & Gerardo Esquivel, 2021. "Consumption and geographic mobility in pandemic times. Evidence from Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 353-371, June.
    5. Mike Brewer & Iva Valentinova Tasseva, 2021. "Did the UK policy response to Covid-19 protect household incomes?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 433-458, September.
    6. Brum, Matias & De Rosa, Mauricio, 2021. "Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2014. "Evaluating Binary Alignment Methods in Microsimulation Models," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15.
    8. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Federico Sanz & Stephen D. Younger, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns and Expanded Social Assistance on Inequality, Poverty and Mobility in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico," Working Papers 558, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
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    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Abela, 2022. "Assessing the impacts of the COVID-19 wage supplement scheme: A microsimulation study," CBM Working Papers WP/06/2022, Central Bank of Malta.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; microsimulation; income distribution; taxes and benefits; inequality; poverty.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies

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