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Monitoring the economy in real time with the weekly OeNB GDP indicator: background, experience and outlook

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Abstract

This study presents the OeNB’s new weekly indicator of economic activity, which is based on a demand-side approach to measuring GDP and which relies on real-time data. The weekly OeNB GDP indicator (1) tracks economic development in Austria on a weekly basis; (2) provides estimates of the contributions of the main demand components of GDP; (3) focuses on seasonally adjusted year-on-year changes; and (4) considers shifts from cash to noncash consumer spending, thus taking into account behavioral changes in the use of payment instruments. The OeNB has published weekly GDP estimates since early May 2020 and has thus provided policymakers and the public with important and timely information on the state of the Austrian economy. First benchmarking results indicate that the weekly OeNB GDP indicator generated rather accurate results for aggregate economic activity in the first two quarters after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria. We describe the construction and the main features of the weekly OeNB GDP indicator, present its results for the period from March to December 2020, discuss the strengths and shortcomings of our approach and draw some lessons from more than eight months of weekly nowcasting with real-time data. Indicator updates will continue to be released during the COVID-19 pandemic at https:// www.oenb.at/Publikationen/corona/bip-indikator-der-oenb.html.

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  • Gerhard Fenz & Helmut Stix, 2021. "Monitoring the economy in real time with the weekly OeNB GDP indicator: background, experience and outlook," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/20-Q1/, pages 17-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2021:i:q4/20-q1/21:b:1
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Ragacs & Lukas Reiss, 2021. "Austria’s labor market during the COVID-19 crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/21, pages 59-78.
    2. Daniel Ollech & Deutsche Bundesbank, 2023. "Economic analysis using higher-frequency time series: challenges for seasonal adjustment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1375-1398, March.
    3. Tomas Adam & Ondrej Michalek & Ales Michl & Eva Slezakova, 2021. "The Rushin Index: A Weekly Indicator of Czech Economic Activity," Working Papers 2021/4, Czech National Bank.
    4. Webel, Karsten, 2022. "A review of some recent developments in the modelling and seasonal adjustment of infra-monthly time series," Discussion Papers 31/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Mantas Lukauskas & Vaida Pilinkienė & Jurgita Bruneckienė & Alina Stundžienė & Andrius Grybauskas & Tomas Ruzgas, 2022. "Economic Activity Forecasting Based on the Sentiment Analysis of News," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Ollech, Daniel, 2021. "Economic analysis using higher frequency time series: Challenges for seasonal adjustment," Discussion Papers 53/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Juan Pablo Cote-Barón & Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Nicol Valeria Rodríguez-Rodríguez & Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez, 2023. "El ISAE: Un Indicador para Monitorear la Actividad Económica Colombiana en Alta Frecuencia," Borradores de Economia 1225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Wegmüller, Philipp & Glocker, Christian & Guggia, Valentino, 2023. "Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-243.
    9. A. A. Shirov & V. V. Potapenko & K. M. Nikitin & Yu. Yu. Chaplina, 2022. "The System of Short-Term Regional Economic Monitoring in Moscow," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 301-310, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; nowcasting; COVID 19; real-time data; payments data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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