IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/reveho/v21y2023i1d10.1007_s11150-022-09625-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adapting to an aggregate shock: The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on rural households

Author

Listed:
  • Mahreen Mahmud

    (University of Exeter)

  • Emma Riley

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

We examine the response of rural Ugandan households to a large aggregate shock, the Covid-19 pandemic, during and one year after the first lockdown in March 2020. Using 6 rounds of phone surveys from 558 households in western Uganda, we find that household income recovery from the lockdown differs by whether households had a business pre-pandemic. After an initial sharp fall, the incomes of those without a business have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. However, the relatively better-off households with a business before the pandemic still have one-third lower income, due to sustained closure of businesses even after the end of the first lockdown restrictions. Additionally, business-owning households have 30% lower wealth one-year into the pandemic, driven by 44% lower assets, 45% drop in savings, and a 15 fold increase in net-borrowing, suggesting long-term damage. Our findings point to the need to support households who face dwindling finances to fall back on.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahreen Mahmud & Emma Riley, 2023. "Adapting to an aggregate shock: The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on rural households," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 19-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:reveho:v:21:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11150-022-09625-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11150-022-09625-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11150-022-09625-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11150-022-09625-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Economics of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poor Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 253-285, August.
    2. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Narayan Das & Selim Gulesci & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman, 2017. "Labor Markets and Poverty in Village Economies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 811-870.
    3. Aggarwal, Shilpa & Jeong, Dahyeon & Kumar, Naresh & Park, David S. & Robinson, Jonathan & Spearot, Alan, 2020. "Did COVID-19 Market Disruptions Disrupt Food Security? Evidence from Households in Rural Liberia and Malawi," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt40r546sv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    4. Del Ninno, Carlo & Dorosh, Paul A. & Smith, Lisa C., 2003. "Public Policy, Markets and Household Coping Strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a Food Security Crisis Following the 1998 Floods," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1221-1238, July.
    5. Dercon, Stefan, 1998. "Wealth, risk and activity choice: cattle in Western Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, February.
    6. David McKenzie & Anna Luisa Paffhausen, 2019. "Small Firm Death in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 645-657, October.
    7. Carter, Michael R. & Lybbert, Travis J., 2012. "Consumption versus asset smoothing: testing the implications of poverty trap theory in Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 255-264.
    8. Peter R. Fallon & Robert E. B. Lucas, 2002. "The Impact of Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Poverty: A Review of Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(1), pages 21-45.
    9. Raymundo M. Campos-Vazquez & Gerardo Esquivel, 2021. "Consumption and geographic mobility in pandemic times. Evidence from Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 353-371, June.
    10. Barrett, C. B. & Reardon, T. & Webb, P., 2001. "Nonfarm income diversification and household livelihood strategies in rural Africa: concepts, dynamics, and policy implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 315-331, August.
    11. Mahmud, Mahreen & Riley, Emma, 2021. "Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. McKenzie, David J., 2003. "How do Households Cope with Aggregate Shocks? Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1179-1199, July.
    13. Kansiime, Monica K. & Tambo, Justice A. & Mugambi, Idah & Bundi, Mary & Kara, Augustine & Owuor, Charles, 2021. "COVID-19 implications on household income and food security in Kenya and Uganda: Findings from a rapid assessment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Stefan Dercon, 2002. "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 141-166, September.
    15. Galina Vereshchagina & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2009. "Risk Taking by Entrepreneurs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1808-1830, December.
    16. George Davis, 2021. "The many ways COVID-19 affects households: consumption, time, and health outcomes," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 281-289, June.
    17. Zimmerman, Frederick J. & Carter, Michael R., 2003. "Asset smoothing, consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 233-260, August.
    18. Glewwe, Paul & Hall, Gillette, 1998. "Are some groups more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks than others? Hypothesis tests based on panel data from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 181-206, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mahmud, Mahreen & Riley, Emma, 2021. "Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Renata Baborska & Emilio Hernandez & Emiliano Magrini & Cristian Morales-Opazo, 2020. "The impact of financial inclusion on rural food security experience: A perspective from low-and middle-income countries," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18.
    3. Quentin Stoeffler & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger & Wouter Gelade, 2022. "The Spillover Impact of Index Insurance on Agricultural Investment by Cotton Farmers in Burkina Faso," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 114-140.
    4. Bloem, Jeffrey & Michler, Jeffrey & Josephson, Anna & Rudin-Rush, Lorin, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Food Insecurity During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Four African Countries," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Administr), July.
    5. Sarah A. Janzen & Michael R. Carter & Munenobu Ikegami, 2021. "Can insurance alter poverty dynamics and reduce the cost of social protection in developing countries?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 293-324, June.
    6. Gebrehiwot, Tagel & Teklewold, Hailemariam & Bezabih, Mintewab & Seifemichael, Robel, 2021. "Does a portfolio of consumption adjustment coping strategies erode resilience? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. van den Berg, Marrit, 2010. "Household income strategies and natural disasters: Dynamic livelihoods in rural Nicaragua," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 592-602, January.
    8. Janz, Teresa & Augsburg, Britta & Gassmann, Franziska & Nimeh, Zina, 2023. "Leaving no one behind: Urban poverty traps in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    9. Christopher B. Barrett, 2005. "Rural poverty dynamics: development policy implications," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 45-60, January.
    10. Lay, Jann & M'Mukaria, George Michuki & Omar Mahmoud, Toman, 2007. "Boda-bodas rule: Non-agricultural activities and their inequality implications in Western Kenya," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 6543, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Linden McBride & Leah Bevis, 2019. "Working Paper 311 - Risk, Returns, and Welfare," Working Paper Series 2437, African Development Bank.
    12. Rudin-Rush, Lorin & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Josephson, Anna & Bloem, Jeffrey R., 2022. "Food insecurity during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in four African countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    13. Chakravorty, Bhaskar & Bhatiya, Apurav Yash & Imbert, Clément & Lohnert, Maximilian & Panda, Poonam & Rathelot, Roland, 2023. "Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on India’s rural youth: Evidence from a panel survey and an experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Krauss, Judith E. & Artur, Luis & Brockington, Dan & Castro, Eduardo & Fernando, Jone & Fisher, Janet & Kingman, Andrew & Moises, Hosia Mavoto & Mlambo, Ana & Nuvunga, Milagre & Pritchard, Rose & Ribe, 2022. "‘To prevent this disease, we have to stay at home, but if we stay at home, we die of hunger’ – Livelihoods, vulnerability and coping with Covid-19 in rural Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    15. You, Jing, 2014. "Risk, under-investment in agricultural assets and dynamic asset poverty in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 27-45.
    16. Notten, Geranda & Neubourg, Chris de, 2007. "Managing risks: what Russian households do to smooth consumption?," MPRA Paper 4670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Echevin, Damien, 2011. "Vulnerability to asset-poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 35660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2005. "The Macroeconomics Of Poverty Reduction," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 369-434, July.
    19. Dessy, Sylvain & Gninafon, Horace & Tiberti, Luca & Tiberti, Marco, 2023. "Free compulsory education can mitigate COVID-19 disruptions’ adverse effects on child schooling," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    20. Azomahou T.T. & Yitbarek E., 2015. "Poverty persistence and informal risk management: Micro evidence from urban Ethiopia," MERIT Working Papers 2015-006, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate shock; COVID-19; Sub-Saharan Africa; Household welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:reveho:v:21:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11150-022-09625-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.