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The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data

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Abstract

We use credit card data from the Federal Reserve Board's FR Y-14M reports to study the impact of the COVID-19 shock on the use and availability of consumer credit across borrower types from March through August 2020. We document an initial sharp decrease in credit card transactions and outstanding balances in March and April. While spending starts to recover by May, especially for risky borrowers, balances remain depressed overall. We find a strong negative impact of local pandemic severity on credit use, which becomes smaller over time, consistent with pandemic fatigue. Restrictive public health interventions also negatively affect credit use, but the pandemic itself is the main driver. We further document a large reduction in credit card originations, especially to risky borrowers. Consistent with a tightening of credit supply and a flight-to-safety response of banks, we find an increase in interest rates of newly issued credit cards to less creditworthy borrowers.

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  • Akos Horvath & Benjamin S. Kay & Carlo Wix, 2021. "The COVID-19 Shock and Consumer Credit: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-008, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2021-08
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.008
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    3. Catarina Midões & Mateo Seré, 2020. "Living with reduced income: an analysis of household financial vulnerability under COVID-19," Working Papers 2008, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    4. Duncan, Elizabeth & Horvath, Akos & Iercosan, Diana & Loudis, Bert & Maddrey, Alice & Martinez, Francis & Mooney, Timothy & Ranish, Ben & Wang, Ke & Warusawitharana, Missaka & Wix, Carlo, 2022. "COVID-19 as a stress test: Assessing the bank regulatory framework," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre & Ariel David Krysa, 2023. "Consumer Loans Dynamics in 2020 in Argentina: An Approach Using Error Correction Models," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(81), pages 111-158, May.
    6. Emmanuel Chavez & Cristobal Dominguez, 2021. "Who pays for a Value Added Tax Hike at an International Border? Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers halshs-03364026, HAL.
    7. Norden, Lars & Mesquita, Daniel & Wang, Weichao, 2021. "COVID-19, policy interventions and credit: The Brazilian experience," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    8. Maria Czech & Blandyna Puszer, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Consumer Credit Market in V4 Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, December.
    9. Anna Doś & Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala & Joanna Błach, 2022. "The Effect of Business Legal Form on the Perception of COVID-19-Related Disruptions by Households Running a Business," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    10. Dursun-de Neef, H. Özlem & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2022. "COVID-19, bank deposits, and lending," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 20-33.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Bank lending; Consumer credit; Credit cards; Credit supply; Household spending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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