Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s11002-013-9254-1
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- David C. Schmittlein & Albert C. Bemmaor & Donald G. Morrison, 1985. "Technical Note—Why Does the NBD Model Work? Robustness in Representing Product Purchases, Brand Purchases and Imperfectly Recorded Purchases," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 255-266.
- Makoto Abe, 2009. "“Counting Your Customers” One by One: A Hierarchical Bayes Extension to the Pareto/NBD Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 541-553, 05-06.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- A. S. C. Ehrenberg, 1959. "The Pattern of Consumer Purchases," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 26-41, March.
- C Wu & H-L Chen, 2000. "A consumer purchasing model with learning and departure behaviour," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(5), pages 583-591, May.
- Uncles, Mark D. & Ehrenberg, Andrew S. C. & Goodhardt, Gerald J., 2004. "Reply to commentary on "Understanding brand performance measures: using Dirichlet benchmarks"," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(12), pages 1329-1330, December.
- Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Ka Lok Lee, 2005. "“Counting Your Customers” the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(2), pages 275-284, August.
- Nenycz-Thiel, Magda & Sharp, Byron & Dawes, John & Romaniuk, Jenni, 2010. "Competition for memory retrieval between private label and national brands," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(11), pages 1142-1147, November.
- Kenneth Train ., 2000.
"Halton Sequences for Mixed Logit,"
Economics Working Papers
E00-278, University of California at Berkeley.
- Kenneth Train, 2001. "Halton Sequences for Mixed Logit," Econometrics 0012002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Train, Kenneth, 2000. "Halton Sequences for Mixed Logit," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6zs694tp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Michael Braun & Peter S. Fader & Eric T. Bradlow & Howard Kunreuther, 2006. "Modeling the "Pseudodeductible" in Insurance Claims Decisions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1258-1272, August.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009.
"Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, January.
- Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, January.
- Rainer Winkelmann, 2008. "Econometric Analysis of Count Data," Springer Books, Springer, edition 0, number 978-3-540-78389-3, December.
- Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
- Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G. S., 2002. "A note on an integrated model of customer buying behavior," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 682-687, June.
- Kaas, R. & Hesselager, O., 1995. "Ordering claim size distributions and mixed Poisson probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 193-201, October.
- Morrison, Donald G & Schmittlein, David C, 1988. "Generalizing the NBD Model for Customer Purchases: What Are the Implications and Is It Worth the Effort?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 145-159, April.
- Ehrenberg, Andrew S. C. & Uncles, Mark D. & Goodhardt, Gerald J., 2004. "Understanding brand performance measures: using Dirichlet benchmarks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(12), pages 1307-1325, December.
- Donald G. Morrison & David C. Schmittlein, 1981. "Predicting Future Random Events Based on Past Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(9), pages 1006-1023, September.
- Morrison, Donald G & Schmittlein, David C, 1988. "Generalizing the NBD Model for Customer Purchases: What Are the Implications and Is It Worth the Effort? Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 165-166, April.
- David C. Schmittlein & Donald G. Morrison & Richard Colombo, 1987. "Counting Your Customers: Who-Are They and What Will They Do Next?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, January.
- Peter J. Danaher, 2007. "Modeling Page Views Across Multiple Websites with an Application to Internet Reach and Frequency Prediction," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(3), pages 422-437, 05-06.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Trinh, Giang & Wright, Malcolm J., 2022. "Predicting future consumer purchases in grocery retailing with the condensed Poisson lognormal model," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
- Martin, James & Nenycz-Thiel, Magda & Dawes, John & Tanusondjaja, Arry & Cohen, Justin & McColl, Bruce & Trinh, Giang, 2020. "Fundamental basket size patterns and their relation to retailer performance," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
- Trinh, Giang & Khan, Huda & Lockshin, Larry, 2020. "Purchasing behaviour of ethnicities: Are they different?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(4).
- Trinh, Giang & Corsi, Armando & Lockshin, Larry, 2019. "How country of origins of food products compete and grow," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 231-241.
- Sorensen, Herb & Bogomolova, Svetlana & Anderson, Katherine & Trinh, Giang & Sharp, Anne & Kennedy, Rachel & Page, Bill & Wright, Malcolm, 2017. "Fundamental patterns of in-store shopper behavior," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 182-194.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Trinh, Giang & Wright, Malcolm J., 2022. "Predicting future consumer purchases in grocery retailing with the condensed Poisson lognormal model," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
- Anesbury, Zachary William & Talbot, Danielle & Day, Chanel Andrea & Bogomolov, Tim & Bogomolova, Svetlana, 2020. "The fallacy of the heavy buyer: Exploring purchasing frequencies of fresh fruit and vegetable categories," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
- Park, Chang Hee & Park, Young-Hoon & Schweidel, David A., 2014. "A multi-category customer base analysis," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 266-279.
- Reutterer, Thomas & Platzer, Michael & Schröder, Nadine, 2021. "Leveraging purchase regularity for predicting customer behavior the easy way," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 194-215.
- Trinh, Giang & Khan, Huda & Lockshin, Larry, 2020. "Purchasing behaviour of ethnicities: Are they different?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(4).
- Trinh, Giang, 2014. "Predicting variation in repertoire size with the NBD model," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 111-116.
- Trinh, Giang & Corsi, Armando & Lockshin, Larry, 2019. "How country of origins of food products compete and grow," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 231-241.
- Zhiqiang (Eric) Zheng & Peter Fader & Balaji Padmanabhan, 2012. "From Business Intelligence to Competitive Intelligence: Inferring Competitive Measures Using Augmented Site-Centric Data," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(3-part-1), pages 698-720, September.
- Nenycz-Thiel, Magda & Beal, Virginia & Ludwichowska, Gosia & Romaniuk, Jenni, 2013. "Investigating the accuracy of self-reports of brand usage behavior," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 224-232.
- Michael Platzer & Thomas Reutterer, 2016. "Ticking Away the Moments: Timing Regularity Helps to Better Predict Customer Activity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 779-799, September.
- Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2010. "Using copulas to model repeat purchase behaviour - An exploratory analysis via a case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 908-917, February.
- Mizerski, Richard & Mizerski, Katherine & Lam, Desmond & Lee, Alvin, 2013. "Gamblers' habit," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(9), pages 1605-1611.
- Trinh, Giang & Lam, Desmond, 2016. "Understanding the attendance at cultural venues and events with stochastic preference models," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(9), pages 3538-3544.
- Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2009. "Probability Models for Customer-Base Analysis," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 61-69.
- Kinshuk Jerath & Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2011. "New Perspectives on Customer "Death" Using a Generalization of the Pareto/NBD Model," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(5), pages 866-880, September.
- Shi, Ruixia & Chen, Hongyu & Sethi, Suresh P., 2019. "A generalized count model on customers' purchases in O2O market," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 121-130.
- Jerath, Kinshuk & Fader, Peter S. & Hardie, Bruce G.S., 2016. "Customer-base analysis using repeated cross-sectional summary (RCSS) data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(1), pages 340-350.
- Ehrenberg, Andrew S. C. & Uncles, Mark D. & Goodhardt, Gerald J., 2004. "Understanding brand performance measures: using Dirichlet benchmarks," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(12), pages 1307-1325, December.
- Desmond Lam & Richard Mizerski, 2009. "An investigation into gambling purchases using the NBD and NBD–Dirichlet models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 263-276, September.
- Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Jen Shang, 2010. "Customer-Base Analysis in a Discrete-Time Noncontractual Setting," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 1086-1108, 11-12.
More about this item
Keywords
Probability models; Purchase frequency counts; Conditional predictions; NBD; Poisson log-normal;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:mktlet:v:25:y:2014:i:2:p:219-234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.