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Violence against noncombatant civilians in revolutionary conflicts: A psychosocial choice model and empirical tests, 1960–2018

Author

Listed:
  • Charles H. Anderton

    (Professor Emeritus of Economics, College of the Holy Cross)

  • Jurgen Brauer

    (Chulalongkorn University)

Abstract

We offer a general theoretical model, and numerical simulations thereof, that reveal conditions under which a political leader chooses, or refrains from choosing, violence against noncombatant civilians as part of a contest with an opposing force. Employing augmented rational choice theory, which incorporates perspectives from psychology and sociology, the model involves a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function over two goods, consumption and political control, with the latter in turn modeled on a CES production function involving three inputs, namely, direct fighting, intentional violence against civilians, and investments in group identity. When the model’s parameters are set to reflect conditions of revolutionary as opposed to non-revolutionary conflict, the model predicts that violence against civilians is particularly high. Using data from 1960 to 2018, the model’s prediction is well-supported by our empirical analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles H. Anderton & Jurgen Brauer, 2024. "Violence against noncombatant civilians in revolutionary conflicts: A psychosocial choice model and empirical tests, 1960–2018," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(3), pages 627-647, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:200:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-023-01067-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-023-01067-8
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Genocides; Mass atrocities; Violence against civilians; Atrocity prevention; Revolution; Comparative statics; Simulation; Regression analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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