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Introducing the Targeted Mass Killing Data Set for the Study and Forecasting of Mass Atrocities

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Butcher
  • Benjamin E. Goldsmith
  • Sascha Nanlohy
  • Arcot Sowmya
  • David Muchlinski

Abstract

This article describes a new data set for the study of genocide, politicide, and similar atrocities. Existing data sets have facilitated advances in understanding and policy-relevant applications such as forecasting but have been criticized for insufficient transparency, replicability, and for omitting failed or prevented attempts at genocide/politicide. More general data sets of mass civilian killing do not typically enable users to isolate situations in which specific groups are deliberately targeted. The Targeted Mass Killing (TMK) data set identifies 201 TMK episodes, 1946 to 2017, with annualized information on perpetrator intent, severity, targeted groups, and new ordinal and binary indicators of genocide/politicide that can serve as alternatives to existing measures. Users are also able to construct their own indicators based on their research questions or preferred definitions. The article discusses the concept and operationalization of TMK, provides comparisons with other data sets, and highlights some of the strengths and new capabilities of the TMK data.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Butcher & Benjamin E. Goldsmith & Sascha Nanlohy & Arcot Sowmya & David Muchlinski, 2020. "Introducing the Targeted Mass Killing Data Set for the Study and Forecasting of Mass Atrocities," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(7-8), pages 1524-1547, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:7-8:p:1524-1547
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002719896405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anna Lührmann & Marcus Tannenberg & Staffan I. Lindberg, 2018. "Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(1), pages 60-77.
    2. Anderton Charles H. & Carter John R., 2015. "A New Look at Weak State Conditions and Genocide Risk," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Anderton Charles H., 2014. "Killing Civilians as an Inferior Input in a Rational Choice Model of Genocide and Mass Killing," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 327-346, April.
    4. Harff, Barbara, 2003. "No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1955," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 57-73, February.
    5. Peter Tikuisis & David Carment & Yiagadeesen Samy, 2013. "Prediction of Intrastate Conflict Using State Structural Factors and Events Data," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(3), pages 410-444, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles H. Anderton & Jurgen Brauer, 2024. "Violence against noncombatant civilians in revolutionary conflicts: A psychosocial choice model and empirical tests, 1960–2018," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(3), pages 627-647, September.
    2. Charles H. Anderton & Jurgen Brauer, 2021. "Mass Atrocities and Their Prevention," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1240-1292, December.
    3. Alfred Krzywicki & David Muchlinski & Benjamin E. Goldsmith & Arcot Sowmya, 2022. "From academia to policy makers: a methodology for real-time forecasting of infrequent events," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 1489-1510, November.
    4. Rød, Espen Geelmuyden & Gåsste, Tim & Hegre, Håvard, 2024. "A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 96-112.

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