IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/399.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Changes in fertility rates and desires in the wake of the homicide surge in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Ginevra Floridi

    (School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburg)

  • Maria Gargiulo

    (Nuffield College, Department of Sociology, and Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford)

  • José Manuel Aburto

    (Nuffield College, Department of Sociology, and Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark)

Abstract

Since 2006, Mexico has experienced a surge in homicide violence due to national policies and international influences on drug trafficking activities. While the effects of the so-called “Drug War” have been extensively studied in demography and social science research, whether and how the increase in homicides has affected fertility is unknown. This study provides a comprehensive account of the relationship between homicides and changes in fertility rates and desires in Mexico. Using fixed-effects models and a staggered difference-in-differences estimator, we study the effect of homicidal violence on the total fertility rate (TFR) across all Mexican municipalities between 2000–2020. Then, using random-intercept and fixed-effects models, we analyse the association between changes in homicide rates and fertility desires for 6,341 women from the Mexican Family Life Survey (2002–2012). Our findings show no average effect of homicides on TFR for the whole period considered, although TFR declined slightly faster (by 0.1 children per woman) in municipalities experiencing very large homicide spikes between 2010 and 2015. We find no association between municipality-level homicide rates and fertility desires, consistent across educational levels and by parity. Our results show remarkable continuity in the Mexican fertility decline despite the rapid escalation of violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ginevra Floridi & Maria Gargiulo & José Manuel Aburto, 2023. "Changes in fertility rates and desires in the wake of the homicide surge in Mexico," HiCN Working Papers 399, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:399
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/HiCN-WP-399.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sara Yeatman & Christie Sennott & Steven Culpepper, 2013. "Young Women’s Dynamic Family Size Preferences in the Context of Transitioning Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(5), pages 1715-1737, October.
    2. Melissa Dell, 2015. "Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1738-1779, June.
    3. Andrés Felipe Castro Torres & B. Piedad Urdinola, 2019. "Armed Conflict and Fertility in Colombia, 2000–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(2), pages 173-213, April.
    4. Ivy Kodzi & David Johnson & John Casterline, 2010. "Examining the predictive value of fertility preferences among Ghanaian women," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(30), pages 965-984.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sara Yeatman & Jenny Trinitapoli & Sarah Garver, 2020. "The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2047-2056, December.
    2. Moore, Ann M. & Keogh, Sarah & Kavanaugh, Megan & Bankole, Akinrinola & Mulambia, Chishimba & Mutombo, Namuunda, 2014. "Bucking social norms: Examining anomalous fertility aspirations in the face of HIV in Lusaka, Zambia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 88-97.
    3. Kaat Van Hoyweghen & Janne Bemelmans & Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2023. "Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-35, December.
    4. AKEJU, Kemi Funlayo, 2021. "Fertility Preference in Older Women: Effect of Place of Residence and Use of Contraceptives in Nigeria," International Journal of Social Sciences Perspectives, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 25-30.
    5. Yacine Boujija & Simona Bignami & John Sandberg, 2024. "Rural–Urban Migration and Fertility Ideation in Senegal: Comparing Returned, Current, and Future Migrants to Dakar to Rural Nonmigrants," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(1), pages 177-210, March.
    6. Thiemo Fetzer & Samuel Marden, 2017. "Take What You Can: Property Rights, Contestability and Conflict," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(601), pages 757-783, May.
    7. Sandra V. Rozo & Therese Anders & Steven Raphael, 2021. "Deportation, crime, and victimization," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 141-166, January.
    8. Fernández Guerrico, Sofía, 2021. "The effects of trade-induced worker displacement on health and mortality in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. d'Este, Rocco, 2022. "Scientific Advancements in Illegal Drugs Production and Institutional Responses: New Psychoactive Substances, Self-Harm, and Violence inside Prisons," IZA Discussion Papers 15248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Daniele, Gianmarco, 2019. "Strike one to educate one hundred: Organized crime, political selection and politicians’ ability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 650-662.
    11. Ceren Baysan & Marshall Burke & Felipe González & Solomon Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Economic and Non-Economic Factors in Violence: Evidence from Organized Crime, Suicides and Climate in Mexico," NBER Working Papers 24897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Zachary Porreca, 2024. "Identifying the General Equilibrium Effects of Narcotics Enforcement," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24227, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Daniel Mejía, 2023. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 344-358, March.
    14. Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar, 2020. "Breaking sad: drug-related homicides and mental well-being in Mexico," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(4), pages 513-531, December.
    15. Christophe Bellégo & Joeffrey Drouard, 2019. "Does It Pay to Fight Crime? Evidence From the Pacification of Slums in Rio de Janeiro," Working Papers 2019-08, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    16. García-Ramos, Aixa, 2021. "Divorce laws and intimate partner violence: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    17. Takuya Ishihara & Masayuki Sawada, 2020. "Manipulation-Robust Regression Discontinuity Designs," Papers 2009.07551, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    18. Enamorado, Ted & López-Calva, Luis F. & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Winkler, Hernán, 2016. "Income inequality and violent crime: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 128-143.
    19. Ryan Brown & Verónica Montalva & Duncan Thomas & Andrea Velásquez, 2019. "Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 892-904, December.
    20. Roxana Guti'errez-Romero & Nayely Iturbe, 2024. "Causes and Electoral Consequences of Political Assassinations: The Role of Organized Crime in Mexico," Papers 2407.06733, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility preferences; Latin America; total fertility rate; Violence;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tilman Brück or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hicn.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.