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The attraction of uncertainty: Interactions between skill and levels of uncertainty in market-entry games

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  • Natalia Karelaia
  • Robin Hogarth

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  • Natalia Karelaia & Robin Hogarth, 2010. "The attraction of uncertainty: Interactions between skill and levels of uncertainty in market-entry games," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 141-166, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:41:y:2010:i:2:p:141-166
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-010-9101-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moore, Don A. & Cain, Daylian M., 2007. "Overconfidence and underconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 197-213, July.
    2. Robin M. Hogarth & Natalia Karelaia, 2012. "Entrepreneurial Success and Failure: Confidence and Fallible Judgment," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(6), pages 1733-1747, December.
    3. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
    4. Amnon Rapoport & Darryl A. Seale & Ido Erev & James A. Sundali, 1998. "Equilibrium Play in Large Group Market Entry Games," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 119-141, January.
    5. Ilia Tsetlin & Anil Gaba & Robert L. Winkler, 2004. "Strategic Choice of Variability in Multiround Contests and Contests with Handicaps," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 143-158, September.
    6. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    7. Anil Gaba & Ajay Kalra, 1999. "Risk Behavior in Response to Quotas and Contests," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 417-434.
    8. Muriel Niederle & Lise Vesterlund, 2007. "Do Women Shy Away From Competition? Do Men Compete Too Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1067-1101.
    9. FranÁois Degeorge & Boaz Moselle & Richard Zeckhauser, 2004. "The Ecology of Risk Taking," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 195-215, May.
    10. Heath, Chip & Tversky, Amos, 1991. "Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-28, January.
    11. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    12. Anil Gaba & Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler, 2004. "Modifying Variability and Correlations in Winner-Take-All Contests," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(3), pages 384-395, June.
    13. Rachel Croson & Uri Gneezy, 2009. "Gender Differences in Preferences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 448-474, June.
    14. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    15. Grieco, Daniela & Hogarth, Robin M., 2009. "Overconfidence in absolute and relative performance: The regression hypothesis and Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 756-771, October.
    16. Don A. Moore & John M. Oesch & Charlene Zietsma, 2007. "What Competition? Myopic Self-Focus in Market-Entry Decisions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 440-454, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph H. Loch, 2017. "Creativity and Risk Taking Aren't Rational: Behavioral Operations in MOT," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 26(4), pages 591-604, April.
    2. Dubard Barbosa, Saulo & Fayolle, Alain & Smith, Brett R., 2019. "Biased and overconfident, unbiased but going for it: How framing and anchoring affect the decision to start a new venture," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 528-557.
    3. Qiu, Yajie & Deschamps, Bruno & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Uncertainty and macroeconomic forecasts: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 463-480.
    4. Koellinger, Ph.D. & Treffers, T., 2012. "Joy leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Remedy," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2012-001-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    5. Chen, Jaden Yang, 2022. "Biased learning under ambiguous information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    6. Saulo Dubard Barbosa & Alain Fayolle & Brett Smith, 2019. "Biased and overconfident, unbiased but going for it: How framing and anchoring affect the decision to start a new venture," Post-Print hal-01988083, HAL.
    7. Cédric Gutierrez & Thomas Åstebro & Tomasz Obloj, 2020. "The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 308-329, March.
    8. Artinger, Sabrina, 2013. "Demand uncertainty in skill-based competition," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79962, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Tomas Miklanek, 2017. "Ego-utility and Endogenous Information Acquisition; An Experimental Study," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp582, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    10. Bergstrom Theodore & Parendo Shane & Sonstelie Jon, 2016. "Competition and Personality in a Restaurant Entry Game," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 411-433, January.
    11. Liqun Liu & Andrew J. Rettenmaier & Thomas R. Saving, 2019. "Staying the Course or Rolling the Dice: Time Horizon’s Effect on the Propensity to Take Risk," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 66-85.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Skill; Uncertainty; Overconfidence; Tournaments; Competition; Risk taking; Gender differences; C91; D03; D81;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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