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Strategic Choice of Variability in Multiround Contests and Contests with Handicaps

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  • Ilia Tsetlin
  • Anil Gaba
  • Robert L. Winkler

Abstract

Variability can be an important strategic variable in a contest. We study optimal strategies involving choice of variability in contests with fixed and probabilistic targets, one-round and multiround contests, contests with and without handicaps, and situations where one contestant can modify variability as well as those in which all contestants have this opportunity. A contestant should maximize variability in a weak position (low mean, high handicap, or low previous performance) and minimize variability in a strong position. In some cases, only these extremes should be used. In other cases, intermediate levels of variability are optimal when the contestant's position is neither too weak nor too strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilia Tsetlin & Anil Gaba & Robert L. Winkler, 2004. "Strategic Choice of Variability in Multiround Contests and Contests with Handicaps," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 143-158, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:29:y:2004:i:2:p:143-158
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andersson, Ola & Holm, Håkan J. & Wengström, Erik, 2016. "Grind or Gamble? An Experimental Analysis of Effort and Spread Seeking in Contests," Working Papers 2016:37, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 28 Jan 2019.
    2. Alfred Müller & Marco Scarsini & Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler, 2017. "Between First- and Second-Order Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(9), pages 2933-2947, September.
    3. Usvitskiy, Alexander, 2022. "Strategic risk-taking in dynamic contests," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 511-534.
    4. Liqun Liu & Nicolas Treich, 2021. "Optimality of winner-take-all contests: the role of attitudes toward risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Boaz Moselle & François Degeorge & Richard Zeckhauser, 2007. "Conspicuous conservatism in risk choice," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Scott M Gilpatric, 2009. "Risk Taking In Contests And The Role Of Carrots And Sticks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 266-277, April.
    7. Dmitry Ryvkin, 2022. "To Fight or to Give Up? Dynamic Contests with a Deadline," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8144-8165, November.
    8. Debapriya Jojo Paul & Julia Henker & Sian Owen, 2019. "The aggregate impacts of tournament incentives in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(2), pages 441-476, June.
    9. Natalia Karelaia & Robin Hogarth, 2010. "The attraction of uncertainty: Interactions between skill and levels of uncertainty in market-entry games," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 141-166, October.
    10. Liqun Liu & Andrew J. Rettenmaier & Thomas R. Saving, 2019. "Staying the Course or Rolling the Dice: Time Horizon’s Effect on the Propensity to Take Risk," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 66-85.

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