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True Overconfidence, Revealed through Actions: An Experiment

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  • Cheung, Stephen L.

    (University of Sydney)

  • Johnstone, Lachlan

    (University of Sydney)

Abstract

We report an experiment that infers true overconfidence in relative ability through actions, as opposed to reported beliefs. Subjects choose how to invest earnings from a skill task when the returns depend solely upon risk, or both risk and relative placement, enabling joint estimation of individual risk preferences and implied subjective beliefs of placing in the top half. We find evidence of aggregate overconfidence only in a treatment that receives minimal feedback on performance in a trial task. In treatments that receive more detailed feedback, aggregate overconfidence is not observed although identifiable segments of overand underconfident individuals persist.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Stephen L. & Johnstone, Lachlan, 2017. "True Overconfidence, Revealed through Actions: An Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 10545, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10545
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    3. Kettlewell, Nathan & Tymula, Agnieszka, 2021. "The Australian Twins Economic Preferences Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 14702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    true overconfidence; overplacement; subjective beliefs; joint estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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