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A re-examination of an Irish popularity function*

* This paper is a replication of an original study

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  • Michael Harrison
  • Michael Marsh

Abstract

This paper focuses on replication in the sense of Herrnson (1995). It re-examines the only study of an Irish popularity function (Borooah and Borooah, 1990) in the light of recent developments in econometric methodology and in Irish politics. Using error correction models the analysis provides an alternative account of the relationship between economics and government popularity to that provided by Borooah and Borooah. The findings indicate that the short-term impact of the economy is weaker than, and different from, that suggested by them. Economic influences at most set the general level of government approval rather than determine the quarter-by-quarter fluctuations. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Harrison & Michael Marsh, 1998. "A re-examination of an Irish popularity function," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 94(3), pages 367-383, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:94:y:1998:i:3:p:367-383
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005037827388
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mueller, John E., 1970. "Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 18-34, March.
    2. Osborn, Denise R, et al, 1988. "Seasonality and the Order of Integration for Consumption," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(4), pages 361-377, November.
    3. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. "The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-245, June.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    5. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    6. Dewald, William G & Thursby, Jerry G & Anderson, Richard G, 1986. "Replication in Empirical Economics: The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Project," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 587-603, September.
    7. Borooah, Vani K & Borooah, Vidya, 1990. "Economic Performance and Political Popularity in the Republic of Ireland," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 65-79, October.
    8. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    9. Clarke, Harold D. & Stewart, Marianne C., 1995. "Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 145-170, April.
    10. MacKuen, Michael B. & Erikson, Robert S. & Stimson, James A. & Abramson, Paul R. & Ostrom, Charles W., 1992. "Question Wording and Macropartisanship," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 475-486, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reinhard Neck & Friedrich Schneider, 2024. "The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(1), pages 298-329, February.
    2. Quinlan, Stephen & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2021. "Forecasting government support in Irish general elections: Opinion polls and structural models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1654-1665.

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    Replication

    This item is a replication of:
  • Borooah, Vani K & Borooah, Vidya, 1990. "Economic Performance and Political Popularity in the Republic of Ireland," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 65-79, October.

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    1. A re-examination of an Irish popularity function (Public Choice 1998) in ReplicationWiki

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