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Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade

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  • Thomas H. W. Ziesemer

    (Maastricht University)

Abstract

In an empirical, dynamic simultaneous equation model (DSEM) for Brazil with 22 equations and variables, we show that foreign income is a driver of economic growth besides semi-endogenous technical change. With a balance-of-payments constraint and endogenous terms of trade, the major mechanism is (i) world GDP driving exports, (ii) exports paying for imported capital goods, which (iii) enter a production function increasing output and the foreign-debt/GDP ratio and (iv) increase the endogenous labour force, and (v) slightly reduce human capital growth. The savings gap drives foreign debt and interest rates up and make the model unstable. Permanent increases of human capital increase the R&D/GDP ratio, labour-augmenting productivity, and GDP. A policy to increase the R&D/GDP ratio leads to more human capital, labour productivity and GDP levels. Both knowledge policies reduce the debt/GDP ratio. A lasting shock on the terms of trade reveals that there is no Harberger–Laursen–Metzler effect. The results hold in the presence of endogenous terms of trade, foreign debt, net foreign income, and net current transfers from abroad, and non-Walrasian (dis-)equilibrium variables: inflation and changing inventories for the goods market, and unemployment in the labour market. Policy should strengthen the weak link from R&D (research and development) to technical change and make education more attractive.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:56:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10644-022-09461-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-022-09461-w
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    1. Thomas H.W. ZIESEMER, 2024. "Estimation Of A Production Function Of Brazil With Domestic And Foreign Capital Stock, 1991-2017," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 24(2), pages 103-128.
    2. Marson, Marta & Migheli, Matteo & Saccone, Donatella, 2023. "Free to die: Economic freedoms and influenza mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to the goods and labour markets," MERIT Working Papers 2022-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic simultaneous equation model; Balance-of-payments constrained growth; Imported capital goods; Foreign debt; Human capital; R&D;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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