IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/psl/bnlaqr/200043.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma

    (University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury(Great Britain))

  • Anthony P. Thirlwall

    (University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury(Great Britain))

Abstract

In mainstream growth theory, including endogenous growth theory, the naturalrate of growth as defined by Harrod, is still treated as exogenous. In practice, however, both the growth of the labour force and the growth of labour productivity are endogenous to demand. This has theoretical implications for the adjustment process between the actual, warranted and natural growth rates. It also has serious implications for the way in which the growth process is viewed: whether from the supply side or demand side. It is shown for a sample of 15 OECD countries 1961-1995 that the natural rate of growth has been very responsive to the actual growth rate, and it is argued that for most countries demand constraints operate long before supply capacity is reached.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2000. "Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(215), pages 433-445.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2000:43
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/9925/9807
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Zuliu F. Hu & Mohsin S. Khan, 1997. "Why Is China Growing So Fast?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 103-131, March.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    4. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
    5. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    6. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
    7. McCombie, J S L, 1985. "Increasing Returns and the Manufacturing Industries: Some Empirical Issues," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 53(1), pages 55-75, March.
    8. Thomas R. Michl, 1985. "International Comparisons of Productivity Growth: Verdoorn’s Law Revisited," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 474-492, July.
    9. Fingleton, B & McCombie, J S L, 1998. "Increasing Returns and Economic Growth: Some Evidence for Manufacturing from the European Union Regions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 89-105, January.
    10. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1994. "Economic Growth and the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-23121-8.
    11. Young, Allyn A., 1928. "Increasing Returns and Economic Progress," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 38, pages 527-542.
    12. John S. L. McCombie & John R. de Ridder, 1983. "Increasing Returns, Productivity, and Output Growth: The Case of the United States," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 373-387, March.
    13. J. S. L. McCombie & A. P. Thirlwall, 1997. "The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-orientated Approach to Economic Growth: an Evaluation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26.
    14. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1.
    15. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Chapters, in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870, pages 1-23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2023. "Semi-endogenous growth in a non-Walrasian DSEM for Brazil: estimation and simulation of changes in foreign income, human capital, R&D, and terms of trade," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1147-1183, April.
    2. Stephanie Seguino & Mark Setterfield, 2010. "Gender Equality and the Sustainability of Steady State Growth Paths," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 18, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Heinz-Peter Spahn, 2001. "On the theory of interest rate policy," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 54(219), pages 355-380.
    4. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in the regions of Italy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 533-552.
    5. Setterfield, Mark & Gouri Suresh, Shyam, 2016. "Multi-agent systems as a tool for analyzing path-dependent macrodynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 25-37.
    6. Soumya Datta, 2016. "Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 593-624, October.
    7. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    8. Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 2012. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Elias Soukiazis & Pedro A. Cerqueira (ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth, chapter 1, pages 11-49, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(282), pages 213-245.
    10. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The Endogenous Nature of the ‘Natural’ Rate of Growth," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2004. "A Simple Model Of Demand-Led Growth And Income Distribution," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 038, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Gabriel Porcile & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2010. "Real exchange rate and elasticity of labour supply in a balance-of-payments-constrained macrodynamics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(6), pages 1019-1039.
    13. Kevin S. Nell & A.P. Thirlwall, 2017. "Perche' la produttivita' degli investimenti varia tra paesi? (Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 70(279), pages 197-231.
    14. Luciano Boggio & Gilberto Seravalli, 2002. "Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?A comment," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 219-227.
    15. Datta, Soumya, 2013. "Convergence, cycles and complex dynamics of financing investment," MPRA Paper 52111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2013.
    16. Molerés-Regalado, Estefanía. & Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio., 2013. "On Harrod’s Natural Rate of Growth and the Role of Demand: an Empirical Assessment," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(16), pages 29-49, primer se.
    17. Fortuno-Hernández, Josefa Carolina. & Landa-Díaz, Heri Óscar., 2014. "Gasto público, inversión y crecimiento en México , 1980-2014," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(19), pages 33-52, segundo s.
    18. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to the goods and labour markets," MERIT Working Papers 2022-029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    2. Jesus Felipe & John S.L. McCombie, 2013. "The Aggregate Production Function and the Measurement of Technical Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1975.
    3. Molerés-Regalado, Estefanía. & Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio., 2013. "On Harrod’s Natural Rate of Growth and the Role of Demand: an Empirical Assessment," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(16), pages 29-49, primer se.
    4. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung - welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert des Wachstum?," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 144, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    5. Scott L. Baier & Gerald P. Dwyer & Robert Tamura, 2006. "How Important are Capital and Total Factor Productivity for Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 23-49, January.
    6. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jie Li & Robert Ayres, 2008. "Economic Growth and Development: Towards a Catchup Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 1-36, May.
    8. Matthias Firgo & Peter Mayerhofer, 2015. "Wissensintensive Unternehmensdienste, Wissens-Spillovers und regionales Wachstum. Teilprojekt 1: Wissens-Spillovers und regionale Entwicklung – Welche strukturpolitische Ausrichtung optimiert das Wach," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58342.
    9. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    10. Young Eun Kim & Norman V. Loayza, 2019. "Productivity Growth: Patterns and Determinants across the World," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(84), pages 36-93.
    11. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Trigg, Andrew B., 2015. "A neo-Kaldorian approach to structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 25-36.
    12. Lueger, Tim, 2019. "The Population Question in a Neoclassical Growth Model. A Brief Theory of Production per Capita," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 112079, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    13. Alan M. Taylor, 1995. "Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region: On the Role of Openness, Trade and Migration," NBER Working Papers 5276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dong Guo & Sandy Dall’erba & Julie Le Gallo, 2013. "The Leading Role of Manufacturing in China’s Regional Economic Growth," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 36(2), pages 139-166, April.
    15. Hibbs Jr, Douglas A., 2001. "The Politicization of Growth Theory," Working Papers in Economics 37, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    16. Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2002. "Cumulative Growth and the Catching-Up Debate From a Disequilibrium Standpoint," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: John McCombie & Maurizio Pugno & Bruno Soro (ed.), Productivity Growth and Economic Performance, chapter 8, pages 197-218, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Rensman, Marieke, 1996. "Economic growth and technological change in the long run : a survey of theoretical and empirical literature," Research Report 96C10, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    18. repec:dgr:rugsom:96c10 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Najeb Masoud, 2013. "Neoclassical Economic Growth Theory: An Empirical Approach," Far East Journal of Psychology and Business, Far East Research Centre, vol. 11(2), pages 10-33, June.
    20. Jan Fagerberg & Bengt-Åke Lundvall & Martin Srholec, 2018. "Global Value Chains, National Innovation Systems and Economic Development," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(3), pages 533-556, July.
    21. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It´s Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 3, pages 061-114, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2000:43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlo D'Ippoliti (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economiacivile.it .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.