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Uneven development and the balance of payments constrained model: Terms of trade, economic cycles, and productivity catching-up

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  • Sartorello Spinola, Danilo

    (UNU-MERIT)

Abstract

This paper expands the Dutt (2002) version of the Balance of Payments Constrained Model (BPCM). We question the assumption of price-neutrality and the incompatibility between the BPCM and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis (PSH) in terms of the long-run terms-of-trade dynamics. The research focuses on three main elements: (1) the long-run behaviour of the terms of trade in a Structuralist framework. (2) The cyclical endogenous dynamics in the relationship between economic activity and income distribution à la Goodwin. (3) Productivity gap and catching-up. This article adds to the Dutt(2002) model (a) a productivity gap dynamics in which the south has a catching-up element; (b) labour market by including a Phillips Curve for the relationship between employment rate and economic activity; (c) labour supply dynamics that considers the labour transfer issue between traditional and modern sectors. We find that the Structuralist/evolutionary arguments hold in the BPCM framework with these changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Sartorello Spinola, Danilo, 2020. "Uneven development and the balance of payments constrained model: Terms of trade, economic cycles, and productivity catching-up," MERIT Working Papers 2020-003, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2020003
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    2. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "Thirlwall's law: Binding-constraint or centre-of-gravity? A possible Kaleckian solution," Department of Economics University of Siena 853, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Thomas Goda & Santiago Sánchez González, 2024. "Export Market Size Matters: The Effect of the Market Size of Export Destinations on Manufacturing Growth," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 21-44, January.
    4. Gisbert, Oriol, 2023. "A description of mature and catching-up economies: A bottom-up approach from trade specialization data," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 193-210.
    5. Ganguly, Arpan & Spinola, Danilo, 2024. "Growth and distribution regimes under global value chains: Diversification, integration, and uneven development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 634-649.
    6. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    7. Shen, Jim Huangnan & Long, Zhiming & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhang, Jun, 2022. "Comparative advantage, endowment structure, and trade imbalances," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 365-375.
    8. Barbara Schuster & Siavash Radpour, 2022. "No "Great Resignation" for Older Workers- Mass Job Loss Drove the Retirement Surge," SCEPA publication series. 2022-01, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    9. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Sonoda, Ryunosuke, 2022. "International competition, income distribution, and North-South uneven development under the balance of payments constraint," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 9-23.
    10. Danilo Spinola, 2021. "The La Marca model revisited: Structuralist goodwin cycles with evolutionary supply side and balance of payments constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 189-212, February.
    11. Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2021. "Patterns of Growth in Structuralist Models: The Role of PoliticalEconomy," CAFE Working Papers 12, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    12. Joana David Avritzer & Lídia Brochier, 2022. "Household credit-financed consumption and the debt service ratio: tackling endogenous autonomous demand in the Supermultiplier model," Working Papers PKWP2219, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    13. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Tarron Khemraj, 2022. "Dominant Currency Shocks and Foreign Exchange Pressure in the Periphery," SCEPA working paper series. 2022-01, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    14. Munir Ahmad & Gul Jabeen & Syed Ahsan Ali Shah & Abdul Rehman & Fayyaz Ahmad & Cem Işik, 2022. "Assessing long- and short-run dynamic interplay among balance of trade, aggregate economic output, real exchange rate, and CO2 emissions in Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 7283-7323, May.
    15. Fabrice Nzepang & Saturnin Bertrand Nguenda Anya, 2022. "Effects of ICTs on the Terms of Trade of Sub-Saharan African Economies," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 107-119, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance of Payments constrains; Terms of Trade; Economic Cycles; Latin American Structuralism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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