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Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation

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  • Kvedaras, Virmantas
  • Garcimartín, Carlos
  • Astudillo, Jhonatan

Abstract

•The dynamics of the BOP constrained growth model are analyzed.•Future growth is forecasted by means of a long-run component consistent with external equilibrium and a cyclical term.•Whenever the cyclical term, driven by current account deficits, is substantial, it conditions future growth rates.•Our findings are in sharp contrast with the predictions of forward-looking rational expectations models.

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  • Kvedaras, Virmantas & Garcimartín, Carlos & Astudillo, Jhonatan, 2020. "Balance-of-Payments constrained growth dynamics: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 232-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:232-244
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.026
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    Cited by:

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    2. Deimante Blavasciunaite & Lina Garsviene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2020. "Trade Balance Effects on Economic Growth: Evidence from European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Srdelic, Leonarda & Davila-Fernandez, Marwil J., 2022. "Demographic transition and economic growth in 6-EU member states," MPRA Paper 112188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Musa Esuwa Shingil & Huseyin Ozdeser & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2022. "Investigation of Balance of Payment Constrained Growth Model: The Impact of Export Growth, Capital Flows, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Growth of the UK," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, May.
    5. F.N. Chimphamba & M.K. Wilson, 2022. "The balance-of-payments-constrained growth model for Malawi: Evidence from the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Policy and Management Issues, JEPMI, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    6. Srdelić, Leonarda & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2024. "International trade and economic growth in Croatia," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 240-258.
    7. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2020. "Structural change in a growing open economy: Attitudes and institutions in Latin America and Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 358-385.
    8. Marwil J. Dávila‐Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2024. "Thirlwall's law: Binding constraint or ‘centre‐of‐gravity’?," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 52-82, February.

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