IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ist/ancoec/v9y2009i1p17-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting The Exchange Rate Series With Ann: The Case Of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Cem Kadilar

    (Hacettepe University)

  • Muammer Simsek

    (Cumhuriyet University)

  • Cagdas Hakan Aladag

    (Hacettepe University)

Abstract

As it is possible to model both linear and nonlinear structures in time series by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), it is suitable to apply this method to the chaotic series having nonlinear component. Therefore, in this study, we propose to employ ANN method for high volatility Turkish TL/US dollar exchange rate series and the results show that ANN method has the best forecasting accuracy with respect to time series models, such as seasonal ARIMA and ARCH models. The suggestions about the details of the usage of ANN method are also made for the exchange rate of Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Cem Kadilar & Muammer Simsek & Cagdas Hakan Aladag, 2009. "Forecasting The Exchange Rate Series With Ann: The Case Of Turkey," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 9(1), pages 17-29, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:ancoec:v:9:y:2009:i:1:p:17-29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eidergisi.istanbul.edu.tr/sayi9/iueis9m2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panda, Chakradhara & Narasimhan, V., 2007. "Forecasting exchange rate better with artificial neural network," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-236.
    2. Zhang, Gioqinang & Hu, Michael Y., 1998. "Neural network forecasting of the British Pound/US Dollar exchange rate," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 495-506, August.
    3. Winston Lin & Yueh Chen, 1998. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates with an intrinsically nonlinear dynamic speed of adjustment model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 295-312.
    4. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-196, May.
    5. Philip Hans Franses & Paul van Homelen, 1998. "On forecasting exchange rates using neural networks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 589-596.
    6. Cornell, Bradford, 1977. "Spot rates, forward rates and exchange market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 55-65, August.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    8. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    9. Ashok Parikh & Geoffrey Williams, 1998. "Modelling real exchange rate behaviour: a cross-country study," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 577-587.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    11. Nikola Gradojevic & Jing Yang, 2000. "The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables," Staff Working Papers 00-23, Bank of Canada.
    12. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Liew Khim Sen, 2003. "The Predictability of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates," International Finance 0307004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for a nonlinear relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 135-152, February.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
    15. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    16. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 307-317, July.
    17. Qi, Min & Zhang, Guoqiang Peter, 2001. "An investigation of model selection criteria for neural network time series forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 666-680, August.
    18. Joseph Plasmans & William Verkooijen & Hennie Daniels, 1998. "Estimating structural exchange rate models by artificial neural networks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 541-551.
    19. S. Baranzoni & P. Bianchi & L. Lambertini, 2000. "Multiproduct Firms, Product Differentiation, and Market Structure," Working Papers 368, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    20. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1987. "Market efficiency and cointegration," Research Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    21. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes, 2001. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis of real exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8.
    22. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    23. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. CIOBANU Dumitru & BAR Mary Violeta, 2013. "On The Prediction Of Exchange Rate Dollar/Euro With An Svm Model," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 65(2), pages 91-109.
    2. Chen Jo-Hui & Diaz John Francis T., 2021. "Application of grey relational analysis and artificial neural networks on currency exchange-traded notes (ETNs)," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Hatice Erkekoglu & Aweng Peter Majok Garang & Adire Simon Deng, 2020. "Comparative Evaluation of Forecast Accuracies for ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing and VAR," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 206-216.
    4. Yasemin Deniz Akarım, 2013. "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Models in Forecasting Market Risk: The Evidence from Turkish Derivative Exchange," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(3), pages 164-172.
    5. Cagdas Hakan ALADAG & Miruna MAZURENCU MARINESCU, 2013. "Tl/Euro And Leu/Euro Exchange Rates Forecasting With Artificial Neural Network," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 1-6, DECEMBER.
    6. Ganbold, Batzorig & Akram, Iqra & Fahrozi Lubis, Raisal, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility: A forecasting approach of using the ARCH family along with ARIMA SARIMA and semi-structural-SVAR in Turkey," MPRA Paper 84447, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    7. Cenk Ufuk Yıldıran & Abdurrahman Fettahoğlu, 2017. "Forecasting USDTRY rate by ARIMA method," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1335968-133, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Liew Khim Sen & Lim Kian Ping, 2003. "Exchange Rates Forecasting Model: An Alternative Estimation Procedure," International Finance 0307005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal & Michail Karoglou & Alicia M. Gazely, 2011. "Forecasting The Uk/Us Exchange Rate With Divisia Monetary Models And Neural Networks," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(1), pages 127-152, February.
    3. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Kondo, Koji, 1997. "Statistical analysis of foreign exchange rates: application of cointegration model and regime-switching stochastic volatility model," ISU General Staff Papers 1997010108000012997, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, September.
    6. Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2003. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4cc3291n, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The nonlinear dynamic relationship of exchange rates: Parametric and nonparametric causality testing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1641-1650, December.
    9. de Souza Vasconcelos, Camila & Hadad Júnior, Eli, 2023. "Forecasting exchange rate: A bibliometric and content analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 607-628.
    10. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    11. Bauer, Rob M M J & Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C, 1994. "German Stock Market Dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.
    12. Kaehler, Jürgen, 1991. "Modelling and forecasting exchange-rate volatility with ARCH-type models," ZEW Discussion Papers 91-02, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Blake LeBaron, "undated". "Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange," Working papers _007, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
    14. Khurshid Kiani & Terry Kastens, 2008. "Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 383-406, November.
    15. Habimana, Olivier, 2017. "The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia," MPRA Paper 75956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Hu, Michael Y. & Tsoukalas, Christos, 1999. "Combining conditional volatility forecasts using neural networks: an application to the EMS exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 407-422, November.
    17. Chun-Teck Lye & Tze-Haw Chan & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2012. "Nonlinear Analysis Of Chinese And Malaysian Exchange Rates Predictability With Monetary Fundamentals," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 5(1), pages 38-49, July.
    18. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    19. Georgios, Katechos, 2011. "On the relationship between exchange rates and equity returns: A new approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 550-559, October.
    20. Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1993. "Does Central Bank Intervention Increase the Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Activation function; ARIMA; ARCH; Artificial neural network; Chaotic series; Exchange rate; Forecasting; Time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ist:ancoec:v:9:y:2009:i:1:p:17-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ertugrul YASAR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifisttr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.