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Estimation and Prediction of Time-Dependent Origin-Destination Flows with a Stochastic Mapping to Path Flows and Link Flows

Author

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  • K. Ashok

    (Marketing and Planning Systems, 1100 Winter Street, Waltham, Massachusetts 02451)

  • M. E. Ben-Akiva

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Room 1-181, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

Abstract

This paper presents a new suite of models for the estimation and prediction of time-dependent Origin-Destination (O-D) matrices. The key contribution of the proposed approach is the explicit modeling and estimation of the dynamic mapping (the assignment matrix) between time-dependent O-D flows and link volumes. The assignment matrix depends upon underlying travel times and route choice fractions in the network. Since the travel times and route choice fractions are not known with certainty, the assignment matrix is prone to error. The proposed approach provides a systematic way of modeling this uncertainty to address both the offline and real-time versions of the O-D estimation/prediction problem. Preliminary empirical results indicate that generalized models with a stochastic assignment matrix could provide better results compared to conventional models with a fixed matrix.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Ashok & M. E. Ben-Akiva, 2002. "Estimation and Prediction of Time-Dependent Origin-Destination Flows with a Stochastic Mapping to Path Flows and Link Flows," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(2), pages 184-198, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:36:y:2002:i:2:p:184-198
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.36.2.184.563
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cremer, M. & Keller, H., 1987. "A new class of dynamic methods for the identification of origin-destination flows," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 117-132, April.
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    4. K. Ashok & M. E. Ben-Akiva, 2000. "Alternative Approaches for Real-Time Estimation and Prediction of Time-Dependent Origin–Destination Flows," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 21-36, February.
    5. Nihan, Nancy L. & Davis, Gary A., 1987. "Recursive estimation of origin-destination matrices from input/output counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 149-163, April.
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    2. Anselmo Ramalho Pitombeira-Neto & Carlos Felipe Grangeiro Loureiro & Luis Eduardo Carvalho, 2020. "A Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Model for the Estimation of day-to-day Origin-destination Flows in Transportation Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 499-527, June.
    3. Lin, Pei-Wei & Chang, Gang-Len, 2007. "A generalized model and solution algorithm for estimation of the dynamic freeway origin-destination matrix," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 554-572, June.
    4. Shuai, Chunyan & Shan, Jun & Bai, Jincheng & Lee, Jaeyoung & He, Min & Ouyang, Xin, 2022. "Relationship analysis of short-term origin–destination prediction performance and spatiotemporal characteristics in urban rail transit," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 206-223.
    5. Hsun-Jung Cho & Yow-Jen Jou & Chien-Lun Lan, 2009. "Time Dependent Origin-destination Estimation from Traffic Count without Prior Information," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 145-170, June.
    6. Huo, Jinbiao & Liu, Chengqi & Chen, Jingxu & Meng, Qiang & Wang, Jian & Liu, Zhiyuan, 2023. "Simulation-based dynamic origin–destination matrix estimation on freeways: A Bayesian optimization approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Zhang, Chao & Osorio, Carolina & Flötteröd, Gunnar, 2017. "Efficient calibration techniques for large-scale traffic simulators," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 214-239.
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    9. Mohammad Saifuzzaman & Leonid Engelson & Ida Kristoffersson & André de Palma, 2016. "Stockholm congestion charging: an assessment with METROPOLIS and SILVESTER," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 653-674, October.
    10. Cantelmo, Guido & Qurashi, Moeid & Prakash, A. Arun & Antoniou, Constantinos & Viti, Francesco, 2020. "Incorporating trip chaining within online demand estimation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 171-187.
    11. Yong Lin, 2023. "Models, Algorithms and Applications of DynasTIM Real-Time Traffic Simulation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-30, January.
    12. Hu, Shou-Ren & Peeta, Srinivas & Chu, Chun-Hsiao, 2009. "Identification of vehicle sensor locations for link-based network traffic applications," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(8-9), pages 873-894, September.
    13. Bera, Sharminda & Rao, K. V. Krishna, 2011. "Estimation of origin-destination matrix from traffic counts: the state of the art," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 49, pages 2-23.
    14. Dimitris Bertsimas & Julia Yan, 2018. "From Physical Properties of Transportation Flows to Demand Estimation: An Optimization Approach," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(4), pages 1002-1011, August.
    15. Simonelli, Fulvio & Marzano, Vittorio & Papola, Andrea & Vitiello, Iolanda, 2012. "A network sensor location procedure accounting for o–d matrix estimate variability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1624-1638.

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