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The real time estimation of origin-destination flows in the presence of platoon dispersion

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  • Bell, Michael G. H.

Abstract

A number of procedures for the estimation in real time of origin-destination flows in junctions or small networks are reviewed. These are based on the assumption that the time taken by vehicles to traverse the junction or network is either small in relation to the chosen time interval or equal to some fixed number of time intervals. In reality, there will be a distribution of travel times that may span a number of time intervals. This paper proposes two ways to allow for this in the estimation of origin-destination flows. The first, appropriate if travel times are approximately geometrically distributed, makes use of the recurrence model of platoon dispersion. The second makes no assumption about the form of the distribution of travel times, but in general requires the estimation of substantially more parameters. Simulation results for data containing geometrically distributed travel times suggests that fitting the correctly specified model produces better estimates of the turning proportions than does the conventional approach where travel times are restricted to a fixed number of time intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Bell, Michael G. H., 1991. "The real time estimation of origin-destination flows in the presence of platoon dispersion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 25(2-3), pages 115-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:25:y:1991:i:2-3:p:115-125
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    1. Lin, Pei-Wei & Chang, Gang-Len, 2007. "A generalized model and solution algorithm for estimation of the dynamic freeway origin-destination matrix," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 554-572, June.
    2. Huo, Jinbiao & Liu, Chengqi & Chen, Jingxu & Meng, Qiang & Wang, Jian & Liu, Zhiyuan, 2023. "Simulation-based dynamic origin–destination matrix estimation on freeways: A Bayesian optimization approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    3. Nie, Yu (Marco) & Zhang, H.M., 2008. "A variational inequality formulation for inferring dynamic origin-destination travel demands," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 635-662, August.
    4. Sun, Carlos & Porwal, Himanshu, 2000. "Dynamic Origin/Destination Estimation Using True Section Densities," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0f0711s6, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    5. Yasuo Asakura & Eiji Hato & Masuo Kashiwadani, 2000. "Origin-destination matrices estimation model using automatic vehicle identification data and its application to the Han-Shin expressway network," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 419-438, December.
    6. K. Ashok & M. E. Ben-Akiva, 2000. "Alternative Approaches for Real-Time Estimation and Prediction of Time-Dependent Origin–Destination Flows," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 21-36, February.
    7. Bar-Gera, Hillel & Mirchandani, Pitu B. & Wu, Fan, 2006. "Evaluating the assumption of independent turning probabilities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 903-916, December.
    8. Hjorth, U., 1999. "The inherent precision of regression estimated route probabilities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 593-607, November.
    9. Wang, Hai & Yang, Hai, 2019. "Ridesourcing systems: A framework and review," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 122-155.
    10. Chang, Gang-Len & Tao, Xianding, 1999. "An integrated model for estimating time-varying network origin-destination distributions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 381-399, June.
    11. Hazelton, Martin L., 2003. "Some comments on origin-destination matrix estimation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 811-822, December.
    12. Ritchie, Stephen & Sun, Carlos, 1998. "Section Related Measures of Traffic System Performance: Final Report," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt4sc0t3bv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    13. Li, Baibing & De Moor, Bart, 1999. "Recursive estimation based on the equality-constrained optimization for intersection origin-destination matrices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 203-214, April.
    14. Zhang, Xiaoyan & Maher, Mike J., 1998. "The evaluation and application of a fully disaggregate method for trip matrix estimation with platoon dispersion," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 261-276, May.
    15. Alex A. Kurzhanskiy, 2022. "A Methodology for Estimating Vehicle Route Choice from Sparse Flow Measurements in a Traffic Network," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-11, February.
    16. A. de Palma & F. Marchal, 2000. "Dynamic traffic analysis with static data: some guidelines with an application to Paris," THEMA Working Papers 2000-55, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    17. K. Ashok & M. E. Ben-Akiva, 2002. "Estimation and Prediction of Time-Dependent Origin-Destination Flows with a Stochastic Mapping to Path Flows and Link Flows," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(2), pages 184-198, May.
    18. Garcia, Reinaldo C., 2002. "Implementing A Dynamic O-D Estimation Algorithm within the Microscopic Traffic Simulator Paramics," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt0n62j6nq, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    19. Sherali, Hanif D. & Arora, Namita & Hobeika, Antoine G., 1997. "Parameter optimization methods for estimating dynamic origin-destination trip-tables," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 141-157, April.
    20. Wu, Jifeng & Chang, Gang-Len, 1996. "Estimation of time-varying origin-destination distributions with dynamic screenline flows," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 277-290, August.
    21. Hjorth, Urban, 2002. "Traffic subflow estimation and bootstrap analysis from filtered counts," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 345-359, May.
    22. Wu, Jifeng, 1997. "A real-time origin-destination matrix updating algorithm for on-line applications," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 381-396, October.
    23. Sherali, Hanif D. & Park, Taehyung, 2001. "Estimation of dynamic origin-destination trip tables for a general network," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 217-235, March.
    24. Ghafelebashi, Ali & Razaviyayn, Meisam & Dessouky, Maged, 2021. "Congestion Reduction via Personalized Incentives," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5b82168n, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    25. Li, Baibing & Moor, Bart De, 2002. "Dynamic identification of origin-destination matrices in the presence of incomplete observations," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 37-57, January.

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