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Calendar Cycles, Infrequent Decisions, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Author

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  • Ravi Jagannathan

    (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208)

  • Srikant Marakani

    (Department of Economics and Finance, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong)

  • Hitoshi Takehara

    (Graduate School of Finance, Accounting and Law, Waseda University, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan)

  • Yong Wang

    (School of Accounting and Finance, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hong Kong)

Abstract

We show that when investors review their consumption and investment plans infrequently at different points in time with interim information flows, the standard consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) will continue to hold only at those points in time when all investors review their plans. Stylized facts suggest that the end of the tax year is a candidate for one such points in time. Therefore, we should expect more support for the CCAPM during the period surrounding the end of the tax year, i.e., the fourth and first quarters in Japan where the tax year ends in December, and the first and second quarters in the United Kingdom where the tax year ends in April. Our empirical findings are consistent with these expectations. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani & Hitoshi Takehara & Yong Wang, 2012. "Calendar Cycles, Infrequent Decisions, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 507-522, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:58:y:2012:i:3:p:507-522
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1427
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Møller, Stig V. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2015. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 136-154.
    3. Simone Guercini, 2019. "Heuristics as tales from the field: the problem of scope," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 18(2), pages 191-205, December.
    4. Altieri, Michela & Schnitzler, Jan, 2023. "Quarterly investment spikes, stock returns, and the investment factor," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. J. Davies & Jonathan Fletcher & Andrew Marshall, 2015. "Testing index-based models in U.K. stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 337-362, August.
    6. Laura Birg & Anna Goeddeke, 2016. "Christmas Economics—A Sleigh Ride," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(4), pages 1980-1984, October.
    7. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2018. "Global Economic Growth and Expected Returns Around the World: The End-of-the-Year Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 573-591, February.
    8. Zhi Da & Wei Yang & Hayong Yun, 2016. "Household Production and Asset Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 387-409, February.
    9. Atanasov, Victoria, 2018. "World output gap and global stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 181-197.
    10. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2012. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2012-42, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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