IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v78y1996i1p54-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles form the Study of Seasonal Cycles?

Author

Listed:
  • Miron, Jeffrey A
  • Beaulieu, J Joseph

Abstract

This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that, in many instances, identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about nonseasonal fluctuations. The authors show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. They also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries, capacity constraints appear to bind. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Miron, Jeffrey A & Beaulieu, J Joseph, 1996. "What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles form the Study of Seasonal Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 54-66, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:78:y:1996:i:1:p:54-66
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6535%28199602%2978%3A1%3C54%3AWHMLAB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Y&origin=bc
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
    2. Ghysels, E., 1986. "A Study Towards a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series," Cahiers de recherche 8612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Beaulieu, J Joseph & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 772-788, July.
    4. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1989. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Production Level and Production Cost Smoothing Models of Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 853-864, September.
    5. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1993. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 360-382, June.
    6. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 621-656.
    7. Cooper, Russell W. & Haltiwanger, John Jr., 1992. "Macroeconomic implications of production bunching : Factor demand linkages," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-127, October.
    8. Krane, Spencer & Wascher, William, 1999. "The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in U.S. employment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 523-553, December.
    9. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1996. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 78-93, February.
    11. Beaulieu, J. Joseph & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1991. "The seasonal cycle in U.S. manufacturing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 115-118, October.
    12. Alan S. Blinder, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 431-453.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Swanson, Norman R. & Urbach, Richard, 2015. "Prediction and simulation using simple models characterized by nonstationarity and seasonality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 312-323.
    2. Price, Brendan & Wasserman, Melanie, 2022. "The Summer Drop in Female Employment," CEPR Discussion Papers 17354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. RUSSO, Giuseppe & VEREDAS, David, 2000. "Institutional rigidities and employment rigidity in the Italian large industrial firms," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2000048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Ajuste Estacional e Integración en Variables Macroeconómicas," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 39(116), pages 135-155.
    5. Andrea Caravaggio & Luigi De Cesare & Andrea Di Liddo, 2023. "A Differential Game for Optimal Water Price Management," Games, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-15, April.
    6. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani & Hitoshi Takehara & Yong Wang, 2012. "Calendar Cycles, Infrequent Decisions, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 507-522, March.
    7. Matas-Mir, Antonio & Osborn, Denise R., 2004. "Does seasonality change over the business cycle? An investigation using monthly industrial production series," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1309-1332, December.
    8. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003. "The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 38, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. Ahdi Ajmi & Adnen Ben Nasr & Mohamed Boutahar, 2008. "Seasonal Nonlinear Long Memory Model for the US Inflation Rates," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(3), pages 243-254, April.
    10. Wen, Yi, 2007. "By force of demand: Explaining international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, January.
    11. Dick van Dijk 1 & Birgit Strikholm & Timo Teräsvirta, 2003. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 79-98, June.
    12. Yi Wen, 2005. "By force of demand: explaining international comovements and the saving-investment correlation puzzle," Working Papers 2005-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2024. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2021. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115526, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Ravi Jagannathan & Yong Wang, 2005. "Consumption Risk and the Cost of Equity Capital," NBER Working Papers 11026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. B. Candelon & A. Dupuy & L. Gil-Alana, 2009. "The nature of occupational unemployment rates in the United States: hysteresis or structural?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2483-2493.
    17. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2024. "Seasonal temperature variability and economic cycles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120640, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-084, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Wen Yi, 2004. "What Does It Take to Explain Procyclical Productivity?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-40, June.
    20. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    21. John Coglianese & Brendan M. Price, 2020. "Income in the Off-Season: Household Adaptation to Yearly Work Interruptions," Upjohn Working Papers 20-337, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    22. Hyung-Suk Choi & Doojin Ryu & Sangik Seok, 2017. "The turn-of-the-year effect in mutual fund flows," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 131-157, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John, 1993. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 360-382, June.
    2. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, April.
    3. George J. Hall, 1996. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: a study of production and inventories at automobile assembly plants," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil K. Kashyap & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Beaulieu, J. Joseph & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1991. "The seasonal cycle in U.S. manufacturing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 115-118, October.
    6. Braun, R Anton & Evans, Charles L, 1998. "Seasonal Solow Residuals and Christmas: A Case for Labor Hoarding and Increasing Returns," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 306-330, August.
    7. Maccini, Louis J. & Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2015. "Inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 290-313.
    8. Robert E. Carpenter & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 1994. "Inventory (Dis)Investment, Internal Finance Fluctuations, and the Business Cycle," Macroeconomics 9401001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. James A. Kahn & Mark Bils, 2000. "What Inventory Behavior Tells Us about Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 458-481, June.
    10. Bec Frédérique & Salem Melika Ben, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 335-343, May.
    11. Hall, George J., 2000. "Non-convex costs and capital utilization: A study of production scheduling at automobile assembly plants," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 681-716, June.
    12. Scott Schuh, "undated". "Evidence on the Link between Firm-Level and Aggregate Inventory Behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
    13. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Anil Kashyap & David Wilcox, 1995. "Why Firms Smooth Seasonals in a Boom," Working Papers 001, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "The seasonality of consumer prices," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 12-23.
    15. Gérard P. Cachon & Taylor Randall & Glen M. Schmidt, 2007. "In Search of the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 457-479, April.
    16. Humphreys, Brad R. & Maccini, Louis J. & Schuh, Scott, 2001. "Input and output inventories," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 347-375, April.
    17. Marcel Fafchamps Jan Willem Gunning & Remco Oostendorp, "undated". "Inventories, Liquidity, and Contractual Risk in African Manufacturing," Working Papers 97020, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    18. Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew J. Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2004. "The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1303-1327, December.
    19. Mr. Federico Mini & Mr. Guido De Blasio, 2000. "Seasonality and Capacity: An Application to Italy," IMF Working Papers 2000/080, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:78:y:1996:i:1:p:54-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.