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Seasonality, Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy

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  • Priestley, Richard

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between seasonality, stock returns, and the macroeconomy using a multifactor model of stock returns. Observed seasonal patterns in excess returns are found to be a result of seasonality in excess expected returns. By utilizing a multifactor model of stock returns, these higher returns are found to be a compensation for risk associated with a number of macroeconomic factors at certain times of the year. Copyright 1997 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Priestley, Richard, 1997. "Seasonality, Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1742-1750, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:107:y:1997:i:445:p:1742-50
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    Cited by:

    1. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani & Hitoshi Takehara & Yong Wang, 2012. "Calendar Cycles, Infrequent Decisions, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 507-522, March.
    2. Abdullah Al-Awadhi & Ahmad Bash & Fouad Jamaani, 2021. "Ramadan Effect: A Structural Time-Series Test," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(1), pages 260-269, January.
    3. Matti Keloharju & Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Peter Nyberg, 2014. "Common Factors in Return Seasonalities," NBER Working Papers 20815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Girardin, Eric & Liu, Zhenya, 2005. "Bank credit and seasonal anomalies in China's stock markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 465-483.
    5. Leger, Lawrence & Leone, Vitor, 2008. "Changes in the risk structure of stock returns: Consumer Confidence and the dotcom bubble," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 228-244, August.
    6. Michael Reutter & Jakob Von Weizsacker & Frank Westermann, 2002. "SeptemBear - A seasonality puzzle in the German stock index DAX," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 765-769.
    7. Zaremba, Adam & Schabek, Tomasz, 2017. "Seasonality in government bond returns and factor premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 292-302.

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