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An Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution

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  • Peter A. Morris

    (Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, California)

Abstract

This paper proposes a set of axioms for combining expert probability assessments. The axioms provide a framework for understanding previous results, and are used to derive a new method for combining event probabilities from different sources into a single estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A. Morris, 1983. "An Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 24-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:1:p:24-32
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.29.1.24
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Irene Valsecchi, 2013. "The expert problem: a survey," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 303-331, November.
    2. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2010. "Flexible pensions for politicians," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 103-124, October.
    3. Mehrez, A. & Yuan, Y. & Gafni, A., 1995. "The search for information -- A patient perspective on multiple opinions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 244-262, September.
    4. Paola Monari & Patrizia Agati, 2001. "Fiducial inference in combining expert judgements," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 10(1), pages 81-97, January.
    5. Wan S. Shin & Jung J. Lee, 1992. "A multi‐run interactive method for bicriterion optimization problems," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 115-135, February.
    6. Weyant John, 2014. "Integrated assessment of climate change: state of the literature," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 377-409, December.
    7. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2008. "Getting the Right Mix of Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 43-52, March.
    8. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
    9. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
    10. Bolger, Donnacha & Houlding, Brett, 2017. "Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 41-49.
    11. Hans Gersbach & Oriana Ponta, 2017. "Unraveling short- and farsightedness in politics," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 289-321, March.
    12. Gersbach, Hans & Müller, Markus, 2006. "Elections, Contracts and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5717, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Wang, W., 1997. "Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 516-529, June.
    14. Ali E. Abbas, 2009. "A Kullback-Leibler View of Linear and Log-Linear Pools," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 25-37, March.
    15. Alina Beygelzimer & John Langford & David Pennock, 2012. "Learning Performance of Prediction Markets with Kelly Bettors," Papers 1201.6655, arXiv.org.
    16. Wallsten, Thomas S. & Diederich, Adele, 2001. "Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-18, January.
    17. Bigun, Elizabeth Saers, 1995. "Risk analysis of catastrophes using experts' judgements: An empirical study on risk analysis of major civil aircraft accidents in Europe," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 599-612, December.
    18. David V. Budescu & Hsiu-Ting Yu, 2006. "To Bayes or Not to Bayes? A Comparison of Two Classes of Models of Information Aggregation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 145-162, September.
    19. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.

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