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An Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution

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  • Peter A. Morris

    (Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., Menlo Park, California)

Abstract

This paper proposes a set of axioms for combining expert probability assessments. The axioms provide a framework for understanding previous results, and are used to derive a new method for combining event probabilities from different sources into a single estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter A. Morris, 1983. "An Axiomatic Approach to Expert Resolution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 24-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:29:y:1983:i:1:p:24-32
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.29.1.24
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Irene Valsecchi, 2013. "The expert problem: a survey," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 303-331, November.
    2. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2010. "Flexible pensions for politicians," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 103-124, October.
    3. Hans Gersbach & Oriana Ponta, 2017. "Unraveling short- and farsightedness in politics," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 289-321, March.
    4. Mehrez, A. & Yuan, Y. & Gafni, A., 1995. "The search for information -- A patient perspective on multiple opinions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 244-262, September.
    5. Gersbach, Hans & Müller, Markus, 2006. "Elections, Contracts and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5717, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Paola Monari & Patrizia Agati, 2001. "Fiducial inference in combining expert judgements," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 10(1), pages 81-97, January.
    7. Wan S. Shin & Jung J. Lee, 1992. "A multi‐run interactive method for bicriterion optimization problems," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 115-135, February.
    8. Weyant John, 2014. "Integrated assessment of climate change: state of the literature," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 377-409, December.
    9. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2008. "Getting the Right Mix of Experts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 43-52, March.
    10. Wang, W., 1997. "Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 516-529, June.
    11. Ali E. Abbas, 2009. "A Kullback-Leibler View of Linear and Log-Linear Pools," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(1), pages 25-37, March.
    12. Alina Beygelzimer & John Langford & David Pennock, 2012. "Learning Performance of Prediction Markets with Kelly Bettors," Papers 1201.6655, arXiv.org.
    13. Jason R. W. Merrick & J. Rene van Dorp & Amita Singh, 2005. "Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(1), pages 17-29, March.
    14. Wallsten, Thomas S. & Diederich, Adele, 2001. "Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 1-18, January.
    15. Bigun, Elizabeth Saers, 1995. "Risk analysis of catastrophes using experts' judgements: An empirical study on risk analysis of major civil aircraft accidents in Europe," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 599-612, December.
    16. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1999. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 187-203, April.
    17. David V. Budescu & Hsiu-Ting Yu, 2006. "To Bayes or Not to Bayes? A Comparison of Two Classes of Models of Information Aggregation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 145-162, September.
    18. James E. Smith & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2004. "Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(5), pages 561-574, May.
    19. Bolger, Donnacha & Houlding, Brett, 2017. "Deriving the probability of a linear opinion pooling method being superior to a set of alternatives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 41-49.

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