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Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results

Author

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  • Brücker, Herbert

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Siliverstovs, Boriss

Abstract

"The specification of macro migration models and, hence, forecasts of migration potentials differ largely in the literature. Two main differences characterise macro migration models: first, whether migration flows or stocks are used as the dependent variable, and, second, whether the heterogeneity in the migration behaviour across countries is considered. This paper addresses both issues empirically using German migration data from 18 European source countries in the period 1967-2001. It finds first that panel unit-root and cointegration tests reject the hypothesis that the variables of the flow model form a cointegrated set, while the hypothesis of cointegration is not rejected for the stock model. The second finding is that standard fixed effects estimators dominate the forecasting performance of both pooled OLS and heterogeneous estimators. Applying the preferred fixed effects estimator, the migration potential from the Central and Eastern European accession countries is estimated at 2.3-2.5 million persons for Germany, which implies a migration potential of 3.8-3.9 million persons for the EU-15. Finally, our estimates indicate that the migration potential in the EU-15 is already exhausted and that the migration potential from Turkey is relatively small." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Brücker, Herbert & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2006. "Estimating and forecasting European migration : methods, problems and results," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 39(1), pages 35-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabzaf:v:39:i:1:p:035-056
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    2. Bofinger, Peter & Franz, Wolfgang & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 2010. "Chancen für einen stabilen Aufschwung. Jahresgutachten 2010/11 [Chances for a stable upturn. Annual Report 2010/11]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201011, February.
    3. Ingmar Rövekamp, 2014. "Vergleich von prognostizierter und tatsächlicher Migration nach Deutschland nach der EU-Osterweiterung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(06), pages 20-26, December.
    4. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2011. "Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit zum 1. Mai 2011: Mehr Chancen als Risiken für Deutschland (The free movement of labour: More benefits than risks for Germany)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201110, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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