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Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries

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  • Samargandi, Nahla
  • Fidrmuc, Jan
  • Ghosh, Sugata

Abstract

We revisit the relationship between financial development and economic growth in a panel of 52 middle-income countries over the 1980–2008 period. Using pooled mean group estimations in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting, we show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. In the short run, the relationship is insignificant. This suggests that too much finance can exert a negative influence on growth in middle-income countries. The finding of a non-monotonic effect of financial development on growth is confirmed by estimating a threshold model.

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  • Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:68:y:2015:i:c:p:66-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.11.010
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    21. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial development; economic growth; pooled mean group estimation; dynamic panel threshold; non-monotonicity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

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