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Vergleich von prognostizierter und tatsächlicher Migration nach Deutschland nach der EU-Osterweiterung

Author

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  • Ingmar Rövekamp

Abstract

Vor der EU-Osterweiterung von 2004 gab es große Diskussionen um die Wanderungsströme aus den neuen Mitgliedsstaaten. Zahlreiche wissenschaftliche Studien prognostizierten ein Migrationspotenzial nach Deutschland in der Größenordnung von eins bis drei Millionen Personen. Vergleicht man diese Prognosen heute mit der tatsächlichen Migration, sieht es auf den ersten Blick so aus, als hätten die damaligen Studien die Migrationsströme erheblich überschätzt. Allerdings gingen die Prognosen von einer sofortigen Gewährung der Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit aus, während diese de facto erst ab 2011 bzw. 2014 von der Politik gewährt wurde. Dies führte dazu, dass in der kurzen Frist weniger Menschen nach Deutschland migrierten, sich diese Migrationsströme aber auf spätere Jahre verschoben haben, sodass sich langfristig betrachtet kein Unterschied in Hinblick auf die Gesamtzahl der Migranten ergibt. Zusätzlich stellten sich deutlich andere makroökonomische Rahmenbedingungen ein, als sie bei den damaligen Prognosen abzusehen waren – auch dies kann langfristige Abweichungen zwischen geschätzten und tatsächlichen Migrationsströmen erklären. Anhand einer Studie wird beispielhaft gezeigt, dass die verwendete Methode recht präzise Ergebnisse geliefert hätte, wenn die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung und die verzögerte Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit schon bekannt gewesen wären.

Suggested Citation

  • Ingmar Rövekamp, 2014. "Vergleich von prognostizierter und tatsächlicher Migration nach Deutschland nach der EU-Osterweiterung," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(06), pages 20-26, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:21:y:2014:i:06:p:20-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Osteuropa; EU-Mitgliedschaft; Migranten; Arbeitsmigranten; Freizügigkeit; Prognose; Migrationspolitik; Migrationsforschung; Vergleich; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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