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Technological Innovation as a Factor of Demand for Energy Sources in Automotive Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Tatiana Mitrova

    (Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS), Russia)

  • Vyacheslav Kulagin

    (Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS), Russia)

  • Dmitry Grushevenko

    (Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS), Russia)

  • Ekaterina Grushevenko

    (Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS), Russia)

Abstract

The issue of forecasting demand for liquid fuels has become particularly significant in recent years with technological development and much tougher inter-fuel competition in the transport sector. In future, these developments could radically transform the oil, gas, and electricity markets. Therefore there is a greater need for improved forecasting methods that take into account the dynamics of market factors, primarily those related to the use of new technologies. We analyse the difficulties of forecasting demand for liquid fuels in conditions of uncertainty related to future technological developments in car transport. We classify the technologies driving demand for motor fuels by the nature of their impact on the demand for petroleum products: technologies aimed at improving the energy efficiency of traditional cars, as well as drivers of inter-fuel competition, both in terms of direct and indirect substitutes for petroleum products. To resolve the problem of limited input information, the methodology incorporates clustering instruments, which enable us to group countries according to certain criteria. The use of economic and mathematical tools with optimizing units enables us to make integrated calculations that model the market for liquid fuels and assess its interactions with the markets of other energy resources. Our proposed system for forecasting demand for liquid fuels, including petroleum products, can be used as an instrument to assess the future impact of technological innovation on the development of the oil industry when carrying out Foresight studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatiana Mitrova & Vyacheslav Kulagin & Dmitry Grushevenko & Ekaterina Grushevenko, 2015. "Technological Innovation as a Factor of Demand for Energy Sources in Automotive Industry," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 18-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:9:y:2015:i:4:p:18-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dmitriy Grushevenko & Ekaterina Grushevenko & Vyacheslav Kulagin, 2018. "Energy Consumption of the Russian Road Transportation Sector: Prospects for Inter-Fuel Competition in Terms of Technological Innovation," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 35-44.
    2. Dirk Meissner & Maxim Kotsemir, 2016. "Conceptualizing the innovation process towards the ‘active innovation paradigm’—trends and outlook," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil products; alternative fuel; automotive transport; forecast of demand; technology; energy efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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