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Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models

Author

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  • Vipin Arora

    (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Abstract

I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models and generate long-term forecasts [2010-2040] for comparison with the International Energy Outlook of the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other similar publications. For both countries the forecasting models predict higher levels and growth rates of energy consumption than the published estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Vipin Arora, 2013. "Comparisons of Chinese and Indian Energy Consumption Forecasting Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2110-2121.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00511
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catherine Wolfram & Orie Shelef & Paul Gertler, 2012. "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 119-138, Winter.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Harvey, Andrew, 2006. "Forecasting with Unobserved Components Time Series Models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 327-412, Elsevier.
    4. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2009. "Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4866, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Claudiu T Albulescu & Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2014. "A comparison of different forecasting models of the international trade in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 420-429.
    2. G P Girish & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A comparison of different univariate forecasting models forSpot Electricity Price in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1039-1057.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy consumption; forecast; projection; China; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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