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Evaluating the Performance of Foresight Studies: Evidence from the Egyptian Energy Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Yomna Atef Ahmed

    (Nile University)

  • ElHassan Anas ElSabry

    (Nile University)

Abstract

This academic paper aims to evaluate the Egyptian Energy Foresight Project "Egypt LEAPS" by assessing both the efficiency of its process and the accuracy of its foresight outcomes in the fields of solar energy, energy efficiency, and fossil fuels. The study employs a two-part approach. Part 1 evaluates the efficiency of the Egypt LEAPS process by collecting expert opinions through an online survey. Part 2 assesses the accuracy of foresight outcomes by comparing original forecasted realization times with expert opinions gathered in this study. The study reveals that experts expressed satisfaction with the energy topics discussed during the foresight exercise and the overall experience. In terms of foresight outcomes, a mixed picture emerged, with successes and failures. Notably, energy efficiency predictions showed a higher failure rate due to its interdisciplinary nature. The study emphasizes the importance of validating and assessing foresight projects to improve their effectiveness in guiding decision-making. It underscores the need for continuous government support and expert engagement in such initiatives. This research contributes to the understanding of technology foresight, offering practical insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in similar projects. It underscores the value of evaluating and refining foresight processes to ensure their relevance and impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Yomna Atef Ahmed & ElHassan Anas ElSabry, 2024. "Evaluating the Performance of Foresight Studies: Evidence from the Egyptian Energy Sector," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 69-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:15:y:2021:i:3:p:69-79
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Feld, Jan & Sauermann, Jan & de Grip, Andries, 2017. "Estimating the relationship between skill and overconfidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 18-24.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foresight assessment; energy foresight; evidence-based policy; energy transition; renewable energy systems; strategies; futures studies; technology foresight; scenario planning; renewable energy; environmental aspects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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