IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v27y2022i3p3660-3678.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ramzi Boussaidi

Abstract

This paper extends the empirical literature on overconfidence by investigating the implications of this bias on the trading activity and the market volatility for different levels of private information. Using individual data for 10 MENA stock markets, we found a positive unidirectional causal relation from market return to trading volume in most markets, indicating that overconfident investors attribute past market gains to their own talent in selecting securities and trade later as if they had generated these gains. Consistent with the hypothesis of the investors' overreaction to private information, we found that the trading activity becomes more excessive as the level of private information increases. Moreover, the overconfidence helps explain the observed excessive volatility in presence of high level of private information.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramzi Boussaidi, 2022. "Implications of the overconfidence bias in presence of private information: Evidence from MENA stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3660-3678, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:3:p:3660-3678
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.2343
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2343
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.2343?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-434.
    2. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    3. Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2000. "Financial markets and the allocation of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 187-214.
    4. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    5. Hirshleifer, David & Daniel, Kent, 2015. "Overconfident investors, predictable returns, and excessive trading," MPRA Paper 69002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Darrat, Ali F. & Zhong, Maosen & Cheng, Louis T.W., 2007. "Intraday volume and volatility relations with and without public news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2711-2729, September.
    7. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    8. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    9. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-972.
    10. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Chan, Kalok & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "An empirical examination of information, differences of opinion, and trading activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 105-134, January.
    11. John M. Griffin & Federico Nardari & René M. Stulz, 2007. "Do Investors Trade More When Stocks Have Performed Well? Evidence from 46 Countries," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 905-951.
    12. Feld, Jan & Sauermann, Jan & de Grip, Andries, 2017. "Estimating the relationship between skill and overconfidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 18-24.
    13. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    14. Bertella, Mario A. & Silva, Jonathas N. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2020. "Loss aversion, overconfidence and their effects on a virtual stock exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 554(C).
    15. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:65-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer, 2015. "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 61-88, Fall.
    17. Bera, Anil K & Jarque, Carlos M & Lee, Lung-Fei, 1984. "Testing the Normality Assumption in Limited Dependent Variable Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(3), pages 563-578, October.
    18. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    19. Deaves, Richard & Lüders, Erik & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 402-412, September.
    20. Qi Chen & Itay Goldstein & Wei Jiang, 2007. "Price Informativeness and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 619-650.
    21. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Emma L. Black & Jie (Michael) Guo & Nan Hu & Evangelos Vagenas-Nanos, 2017. "Uncertainty triggers overreaction: evidence from corporate takeovers," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1362-1389, November.
    23. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    24. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Jih-Jeng & Chen, Yu-Hao, 2016. "The overconfident trading behavior of individual versus institutional investors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 518-539.
    25. Benos, Alexandros V., 1998. "Aggressiveness and survival of overconfident traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 353-383, September.
    26. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    27. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
    28. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 2000. "Trading Volume: Definitions, Data Analysis, and Implications of Portfolio Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 257-300.
    29. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    30. Albert Wang, F., 1998. "Strategic trading, asymmetric information and heterogeneous prior beliefs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 321-352, September.
    31. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2013. "Overconfidence, experience, and professionalism: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 92-101.
    32. Zhang, Xiaotao & Liang, Junpeng & He, Feng, 2019. "Private information advantage or overconfidence? Performance of intraday arbitrage speculators in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    33. Artyom Durnev & Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung & Paul Zarowin, 2003. "Does Greater Firm‐Specific Return Variation Mean More or Less Informed Stock Pricing?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 797-836, December.
    34. Chi Ming Ho, 2013. "Private information, overconfidence and intraday trading behaviour: empirical study of the Taiwan stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 325-345, February.
    35. Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
    36. Chuang, Wen-I & Susmel, Rauli, 2011. "Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1626-1644, July.
    37. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    38. Crouch, R L, 1970. "A Nonlinear Test of the Random-Walk Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 199-202, March.
    39. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    40. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    41. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1887-1934 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Gerhard van de Venter & David Michayluk, 2008. "An Insight into Overconfidence in the Forecasting Abilities of Financial Advisors," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 32(3), pages 545-557, March.
    43. Feld, Jan & Sauermann, Jan & de Grip, Andries, 2017. "Estimating the relationship between skill and overconfidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 18-24.
    44. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    2. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2020. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Activity in the Asia Pacific REIT Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    5. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    6. Zhang, Xiaotao & Liang, Junpeng & He, Feng, 2019. "Private information advantage or overconfidence? Performance of intraday arbitrage speculators in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Kenneth Yung & Yen-Chih Liu, 2009. "Implications of futures trading volume: Hedgers versus speculators," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(5), pages 318-337, December.
    8. Wen-I Chuang & Bong-Soo Lee & Kai-Li Wang, 2014. "US and Domestic Market Gains and Asian Investors’ Overconfident Trading Behavior," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 113-148, March.
    9. Jitender Kumar & Neha Prince, 2022. "Overconfidence bias in the Indian stock market in diverse market situations: an empirical study," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3031-3047, December.
    10. Chuang, Wen-I & Susmel, Rauli, 2011. "Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1626-1644, July.
    11. Han‐Sheng Chen & Sanjiv Sabherwal, 2019. "Overconfidence among option traders," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 61-91, January.
    12. Suman Gupta & Vinay Goyal & Vinay Kumar Kalakbandi & Sankarshan Basu, 2018. "Overconfidence, trading volume and liquidity effect in Asia’s Giants: evidence from pre-, during- and post-global recession," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(3), pages 235-257, September.
    13. Zaiane Salma & Abaoub Ezzeddine, 2008. "Overconfidence And Trading Volume: Evidence From An Emergent Market," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(10), pages 1-41.
    14. Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Jih-Jeng & Chen, Yu-Hao, 2016. "The overconfident trading behavior of individual versus institutional investors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 518-539.
    15. Gong, Fuzhou & Liu, Hong, 2016. "Asymmetric information, heterogeneous prior beliefs, and public information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 100-120.
    16. Hwang, Soosung & Cho, Youngha & Noh, Sanha, 2022. "The cost of overconfidence in public information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11681 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Zhou, Xinxing & Gao, Yan & Wang, Ping & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2022. "Examining the overconfidence and overreaction in China’s carbon markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 472-489.
    19. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril & Roulund, Rasmus, 2019. "Price Dynamics and Trader Overconfidence," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 161, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    20. Bregu, Klajdi, 2020. "Overconfidence and (Over)Trading: The Effect of Feedback on Trading Behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    21. Venkata Narasimha Chary Mushinada & Venkata Subrahmanya Sarma Veluri, 2020. "Self-attribution, Overconfidence and Dynamic Market Volatility in Indian Stock Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 970-989, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:27:y:2022:i:3:p:3660-3678. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.