IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v8y2016i12p1198-d83652.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tianxiang Li

    (College of Economics & Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Tomas Baležentis

    (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, Kudirkos 18-2, LT-03105 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • Lijuan Cao

    (College of Economics & Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Jing Zhu

    (College of Economics & Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)

  • Irena Kriščiukaitienė

    (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, Kudirkos 18-2, LT-03105 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • Rasa Melnikienė

    (Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics, Kudirkos 18-2, LT-03105 Vilnius, Lithuania)

Abstract

China has experienced an uninterrupted growth of grain output during the past decade. However, a long-term analysis indicates fluctuations in productivity and output levels, as well as dramatic shifts in grain crop mix and regional distribution. This paper, therefore, re-examines the major factors behind the dynamics in China’s grain production over the period of 1978–2013. The Index Decomposition Analysis technique, facilitated by means of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, is employed to factorize the changes in China’s grain output into four effects, i.e., yield effect, area effect, crop-mix effect and spatial distribution effect. The results show that yield effect, having been the major driver behind the growth, is experiencing a declining trend over time, with crop-mix effect gaining increasing importance. The results also indicate that changes in crop-mix caused an increase in the total grain output during 2003–2013, however this was due to abandonment of soybean farming, which is not sustainable in terms of self-sufficiency. The effect of spatial distribution has been diminishing ever since 1984. Therefore, re-allocation of areas sown is not likely to damper the sustainability of grain farming.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianxiang Li & Tomas Baležentis & Lijuan Cao & Jing Zhu & Irena Kriščiukaitienė & Rasa Melnikienė, 2016. "Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-24, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:12:p:1198-:d:83652
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/12/1198/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/12/1198/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Zhangyue Zhou, 2010. "Achieving food security in China: past three decades and beyond," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(3), pages 251-275, September.
    3. Jing Zhu & Denise Hare & Funing Zhong & Zhangyue Zhou, 2015. "Grain Promotion and Food Consumption: Analysis of Chinese Provincial Data," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 332-345.
    4. Jianzhai Wu & Jianhua Zhang & Shengwei Wang & Fantao Kong, 2016. "Assessment of Food Security in China: A New Perspective Based on Production-Consumption Coordination," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2014. "Food security policy options for China: Lessons from other countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 50-58.
    6. S. Mahendra Dev & Funing Zhong, 2015. "Trade and stock management to achieve national food security in India and China?," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(4), pages 641-654, November.
    7. Wusheng Yu & Hans G. Jensen, 2010. "China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 343-368, June.
    8. Reshmita Nath & Yibo Luan & Wangming Yang & Chen Yang & Wen Chen & Qian Li & Xuefeng Cui, 2015. "Changes in Arable Land Demand for Food in India and China: A Potential Threat to Food Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-27, April.
    9. Kang, Jidong & Zhao, Tao & Liu, Nan & Zhang, Xin & Xu, Xianshuo & Lin, Tao, 2014. "A multi-sectoral decomposition analysis of city-level greenhouse gas emissions: Case study of Tianjin, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 562-571.
    10. Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
    11. Robaina-Alves, Margarita & Moutinho, Victor, 2014. "Decomposition of energy-related GHG emissions in agriculture over 1995–2008 for European countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 949-957.
    12. Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), pages 1-22.
    13. Linlin Xiao & Xiaohuan Yang & Hongyan Cai & Dingxiang Zhang, 2015. "Cultivated Land Changes and Agricultural Potential Productivity in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-16, August.
    14. Xu, X.Y. & Ang, B.W., 2013. "Index decomposition analysis applied to CO2 emission studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 313-329.
    15. Brizga, Janis & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus, 2013. "Drivers of CO2 emissions in the former Soviet Union: A country level IPAT analysis from 1990 to 2010," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 743-753.
    16. Ang, B.W. & Huang, H.C. & Mu, A.R., 2009. "Properties and linkages of some index decomposition analysis methods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4624-4632, November.
    17. Zhou, Zhang-Yue & Tian, Wei-Ming, 2006. "Evolving trends of grain production in China," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 14.
    18. Khan, Shahbaz & Hanjra, Munir A. & Mu, Jianxin, 2009. "Water management and crop production for food security in China: A review," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 349-360, March.
    19. Shuhao Tan, 2008. "Impacts of Cultivated Land Conversion on Environmental Sustainability and Grain Self‐sufficiency in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(3), pages 75-92, May.
    20. Colin A. Carter & Funing Zhong & Jing Zhu, 2012. "Advances in Chinese Agriculture and its Global Implications," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 1-36.
    21. Jikun Huang & Jun Yang & Scott Rozelle, 2010. "China's agriculture: drivers of change and implications for China and the rest of world," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 47-55, November.
    22. Ito, Junichi & Ni, Jing, 2013. "Capital deepening, land use policy, and self-sufficiency in China's grain sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 95-107.
    23. Gale, Fred & Hansen, James & Jewison, Michael, 2015. "China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural Imports," Economic Information Bulletin 198800, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Shulin & Su, Xiaoling & Singh, Vijay P & Ayantobo, Olusola Olaitan & Xie, Juan, 2018. "Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis of changes in agricultural water use: a case study of the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 422-430.
    2. Yuanyuan Chen & Changhe Lu, 2018. "A Comparative Analysis on Food Security in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    3. Xiaobin Jin & Xiaomin Xiang & Xu Guan & Xiaowei Wu & Qing Bai & Yinkang Zhou, 2017. "Assessing the relationship between the spatial distribution of land consolidation projects and farmland resources in China, 2006–2012," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(5), pages 889-905, October.
    4. Xin, Liangjie & Li, Xiubin, 2018. "China should not massively reclaim new farmland," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 12-15.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Tianxiang & Baležentis, Tomas & Makutėnienė, Daiva & Streimikiene, Dalia & Kriščiukaitienė, Irena, 2016. "Energy-related CO2 emission in European Union agriculture: Driving forces and possibilities for reduction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 682-694.
    2. Štreimikienė, Dalia & Balezentis, Tomas, 2016. "Kaya identity for analysis of the main drivers of GHG emissions and feasibility to implement EU “20–20–20” targets in the Baltic States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1108-1113.
    3. Lu, Qinli & Yang, Hong & Huang, Xianjin & Chuai, Xiaowei & Wu, Changyan, 2015. "Multi-sectoral decomposition in decoupling industrial growth from carbon emissions in the developed Jiangsu Province, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 414-425.
    4. Xu, Xianshuo & Zhao, Tao & Liu, Nan & Kang, Jidong, 2014. "Changes of energy-related GHG emissions in China: An empirical analysis from sectoral perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 298-307.
    5. Liu, Nan & Ma, Zujun & Kang, Jidong, 2017. "A regional analysis of carbon intensities of electricity generation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 268-277.
    6. Xuankai Deng & Yanhua Yu & Yanfang Liu, 2015. "Effect of Construction Land Expansion on Energy-Related Carbon Emissions: Empirical Analysis of China and Its Provinces from 2001 to 2011," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Wenting Wang & Longbao Wei, 2021. "Impacts of agricultural price support policy on price variability and welfare: Evidence from China's soybean market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 3-17, January.
    8. Banie Naser Outchiri, 2020. "Contributing to better energy and environmental analyses: how accurate are decomposition analysis results?," Cahiers de recherche 20-11, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    9. Zhiqian Yu & Dalia Streimikiene & Tomas Balezentis & Rimantas Dapkus, 2017. "Final Energy Consumption Trends and Drivers in Czech Republic and Latvia," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 866-866, August.
    10. Vasilii Erokhin & Gao Tianming & Luminita Chivu & Jean Vasile Andrei, 2022. "Food security in a food self-sufficient economy: A review of China's ongoing transition to a zero hunger state," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(12), pages 476-487.
    11. Lin, Gang & Jiang, Dong & Fu, Jingying & Wang, Di & Li, Xiang, 2019. "A spatial shift-share decomposition of energy consumption changes in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Tian, Qing & Holland, John H. & Brown, Daniel G., 2016. "Social and economic impacts of subsidy policies on rural development in the Poyang Lake Region, China: Insights from an agent-based model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 12-27.
    13. Liu, Nan & Ma, Zujun & Kang, Jidong & Su, Bin, 2019. "A multi-region multi-sector decomposition and attribution analysis of aggregate carbon intensity in China from 2000 to 2015," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 410-421.
    14. Román-Collado, Rocío & Cansino, José M. & Botia, Camilo, 2018. "How far is Colombia from decoupling? Two-level decomposition analysis of energy consumption changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 687-700.
    15. Jie-fang Dong & Qiang Wang & Chun Deng & Xing-min Wang & Xiao-lei Zhang, 2016. "How to Move China toward a Green-Energy Economy: From a Sector Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, April.
    16. Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying & Yu, Song-Min, 2014. "Energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction in China's 11th Five-Year Plan: A performance evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 348-359.
    17. Xianrui Liao & Wei Yang & Yichen Wang & Junnian Song, 2019. "Uncovering Variations, Determinants, and Disparities of Multisector-Level Final Energy Use of Industries Across Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    18. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2016. "A cross-country assessment of energy-related CO2 emissions: An extended Kaya Index Decomposition Approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1361-1374.
    19. Liobikienė, Genovaitė & Butkus, Mindaugas & Bernatonienė, Jurga, 2016. "Drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in the Baltic states: decomposition analysis related to the implementation of Europe 2020 strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 309-317.
    20. Wenting Wang & Longbao Wei, 2019. "Impacts of Agricultural Price Support Policies on Price Variability and Welfare: Evidence from China's Soybean Market," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 19-wp592, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:12:p:1198-:d:83652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.