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The Effects of Climate Variation and Anthropogenic Activity on Karst Spring Discharge Based on the Wavelet Coherence Analysis and the Multivariate Statistical

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  • Juan Zhang

    (College of Geographic and Environmental Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
    State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Zhongli Zhu

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Huiqing Hao

    (College of Geographic and Environmental Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
    Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)

Abstract

This study focused on the impact of anthropogenic activity on magnitude, frequency, and minima of spring discharge. Niangziguan Springs (NS), China, was selected as an example, as its discharge is decreasing due to the combined effects of climate variation and human activity. For exploring the impact of human activity on the spring discharge from climate change, the spring discharges from 1959 to 2015 were divided into two periods: pre-development period (i.e., 1959–1980) and post-development period (i.e., 1981–2015). A polynomial regression model of the spring discharge was developed for the pre-development period. We deduced the model in the post-development period, compared the results with the observed spring discharge, and concluded that the climate variation and human activity caused 6.93% and 32.38% spring discharge decline, respectively. The relationships of spring discharge with Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), E1 Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were analyzed by wavelet analysis during the two periods. The results illustrated that the monsoons (i.e., ISM and EASM) were dominated by climate factors that affect the NS discharge versus climate teleconnections (i.e., ENSO and PDO). According to different time scales, human activities have had an impact on the periodicity of NS discharge, which altered the periodicities of the spring discharge at inter-annual time scales, but the periodicities at intra-annual and annual time scales have remained the same between the two periods. Under the effects of human activity, the local parameter of non-stationary general extreme value (NSGEV) distribution varied with time. The predicted spring discharge minimum value is supposed to be 4.53 m 3 /s with a 95% confidential interval with an upper boundary of 6.06 m 3 /s and a lower boundary of 2.80 m 3 /s in 2020. The results of this study would benefit the management of spring discharge and water resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Zhang & Zhongli Zhu & Huiqing Hao, 2023. "The Effects of Climate Variation and Anthropogenic Activity on Karst Spring Discharge Based on the Wavelet Coherence Analysis and the Multivariate Statistical," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:11:p:8798-:d:1159289
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kriechbaumer, Thomas & Angus, Andrew & Parsons, David & Rivas Casado, Monica, 2014. "An improved wavelet–ARIMA approach for forecasting metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 32-41.
    2. Dao, Phong B., 2022. "On Wilcoxon rank sum test for condition monitoring and fault detection of wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
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    1. Huayao Li & Fawang Zhang & Xinqiang Du & Dezhi Tian & Shan Jiao & Jiliang Zhu & Fenggang Dai, 2023. "Identification of the Pollution Mechanisms and Remediation Strategies for Abandoned Wells in the Karst Areas of Northern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, November.

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