IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i3p697-d1331018.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Benchmarking of Various Flexible Soft-Computing Strategies for the Accurate Estimation of Wind Turbine Output Power

Author

Listed:
  • Boudy Bilal

    (Electrical Engineering Department, UR-EEDD, Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique, Nouakchott BP 4303, Mauritania
    URAER/FST, Université de Nouakchott, Nouakchott BP 5026, Mauritania)

  • Kaan Yetilmezsoy

    (Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, Davutpasa, Esenler, 34220 Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Mohammed Ouassaid

    (Electrical Engineering Department, Engineering for Smart and Sustainable Systems Research Centre, Mohammadia School of Engineers, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Rabat 10090, Morocco)

Abstract

This computational study explores the potential of several soft-computing techniques for wind turbine (WT) output power (kW) estimation based on seven input variables of wind speed (m/s), wind direction (°), air temperature (°C), pitch angle (°), generator temperature (°C), rotating speed of the generator (rpm), and voltage of the network (V). In the present analysis, a nonlinear regression-based model (NRM), three decision tree-based methods (random forest (RF), random tree (RT), and reduced error pruning tree (REPT) models), and multilayer perceptron-based soft-computing approach (artificial neural network (ANN) model) were simultaneously implemented for the first time in the prediction of WT output power (WTOP). To identify the top-performing soft computing technique, the applied models’ predictive success was compared using over 30 distinct statistical goodness-of-fit parameters. The performance assessment indices corroborated the superiority of the RF-based model over other data-intelligent models in predicting WTOP. It was seen from the results that the proposed RF-based model obtained the narrowest uncertainty bands and the lowest quantities of increased uncertainty values across all sets. Although the determination coefficient values of all competitive decision tree-based models were satisfactory, the lower percentile deviations and higher overall accuracy score of the RF-based model indicated its superior performance and higher accuracy over other competitive approaches. The generator’s rotational speed was shown to be the most useful parameter for RF-based model prediction of WTOP, according to a sensitivity study. This study highlighted the significance and capability of the implemented soft-computing strategy for better management and reliable operation of wind farms in wind energy forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Boudy Bilal & Kaan Yetilmezsoy & Mohammed Ouassaid, 2024. "Benchmarking of Various Flexible Soft-Computing Strategies for the Accurate Estimation of Wind Turbine Output Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-36, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:3:p:697-:d:1331018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/3/697/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/3/697/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ye, Lin & Dai, Binhua & Li, Zhuo & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Lu, Peng, 2022. "An ensemble method for short-term wind power prediction considering error correction strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    2. Dao, Phong B., 2022. "On Wilcoxon rank sum test for condition monitoring and fault detection of wind turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    3. Kusiak, Andrew & Li, Wenyan, 2011. "The prediction and diagnosis of wind turbine faults," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 16-23.
    4. Li, Ke & Shen, Ruifang & Wang, Zhenguo & Yan, Bowen & Yang, Qingshan & Zhou, Xuhong, 2023. "An efficient wind speed prediction method based on a deep neural network without future information leakage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    5. Alkinoos Psarras & Theodoros Anagnostopoulos & Ioannis Salmon & Yannis Psaromiligkos & Lazaros Vryzidis, 2022. "A Change Management Approach with the Support of the Balanced Scorecard and the Utilization of Artificial Neural Networks," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, May.
    6. Farid Saberi-Movahed & Mohammad Najafzadeh & Adel Mehrpooya, 2020. "Receiving More Accurate Predictions for Longitudinal Dispersion Coefficients in Water Pipelines: Training Group Method of Data Handling Using Extreme Learning Machine Conceptions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 529-561, January.
    7. Wu, Qiang & Zheng, Hongling & Guo, Xiaozhu & Liu, Guangqiang, 2022. "Promoting wind energy for sustainable development by precise wind speed prediction based on graph neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 977-992.
    8. He, Ruiyang & Yang, Hongxing & Sun, Shilin & Lu, Lin & Sun, Haiying & Gao, Xiaoxia, 2022. "A machine learning-based fatigue loads and power prediction method for wind turbines under yaw control," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    9. Stock-Williams, Clym & Swamy, Siddharth Krishna, 2019. "Automated daily maintenance planning for offshore wind farms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 1393-1403.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Phong B. Dao, 2023. "On Cointegration Analysis for Condition Monitoring and Fault Detection of Wind Turbines Using SCADA Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, March.
    2. Bilal, Boudy & Adjallah, Kondo Hloindo & Sava, Alexandre & Yetilmezsoy, Kaan & Ouassaid, Mohammed, 2023. "Wind turbine output power prediction and optimization based on a novel adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with the moving window," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    3. Zhang, Dongqin & Hu, Gang & Song, Jie & Gao, Huanxiang & Ren, Hehe & Chen, Wenli, 2024. "A novel spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting method based on the microscale meteorological model and a hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    4. Wang, Anqi & Pei, Yan & Zhu, Yunyi & Qian, Zheng, 2023. "Wind turbine fault detection and identification through self-attention-based mechanism embedded with a multivariable query pattern," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 918-937.
    5. Tian, Runze & Kou, Peng & Zhang, Yuanhang & Mei, Mingyang & Zhang, Zhihao & Liang, Deliang, 2024. "Residual-connected physics-informed neural network for anti-noise wind field reconstruction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    6. He, Ruiyang & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin & Gao, Xiaoxia, 2024. "Site-specific wake steering strategy for combined power enhancement and fatigue mitigation within wind farms," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    7. Ashkan Safari & Hamed Kheirandish Gharehbagh & Morteza Nazari Heris, 2023. "DeepVELOX: INVELOX Wind Turbine Intelligent Power Forecasting Using Hybrid GWO–GBR Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-22, September.
    8. Wang, Xiaodi & Hao, Yan & Yang, Wendong, 2024. "Novel wind power ensemble forecasting system based on mixed-frequency modeling and interpretable base model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    9. Lorin Jenkel & Stefan Jonas & Angela Meyer, 2023. "Privacy-Preserving Fleet-Wide Learning of Wind Turbine Conditions with Federated Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-29, September.
    10. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2021. "Toward hybrid approaches for wind turbine power curve modeling with balanced loss functions and local weighting schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    11. Jin, Xin & Ju, Wenbin & Zhang, Zhaolong & Guo, Lianxin & Yang, Xiangang, 2016. "System safety analysis of large wind turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1293-1307.
    12. Chiacchio, Ferdinando & D’Urso, Diego & Famoso, Fabio & Brusca, Sebastian & Aizpurua, Jose Ignacio & Catterson, Victoria M., 2018. "On the use of dynamic reliability for an accurate modelling of renewable power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 605-621.
    13. Márton Gosztonyi & Csákné Filep Judit, 2022. "Profiling (Non-)Nascent Entrepreneurs in Hungary Based on Machine Learning Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    14. Tian, Ai-Qing & Wang, Xiao-Yang & Xu, Heying & Pan, Jeng-Shyang & Snášel, Václav & Lv, Hong-Xia, 2024. "Multi-objective optimization model for railway heavy-haul traffic: Addressing carbon emissions reduction and transport efficiency improvement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    15. Soua, Slim & Van Lieshout, Paul & Perera, Asanka & Gan, Tat-Hean & Bridge, Bryan, 2013. "Determination of the combined vibrational and acoustic emission signature of a wind turbine gearbox and generator shaft in service as a pre-requisite for effective condition monitoring," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 175-181.
    16. Lv, Yunlong & Hu, Qin & Xu, Hang & Lin, Huiyao & Wu, Yufan, 2024. "An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on spatial-temporal attention graph convolutional model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    17. Colak, Ilhami & Sagiroglu, Seref & Yesilbudak, Mehmet, 2012. "Data mining and wind power prediction: A literature review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 241-247.
    18. Ousmane Diao & P.-A. Absil & Mouhamadou Diallo, 2023. "Generalized Linear Models to Forecast Malaria Incidence in Three Endemic Regions of Senegal," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(13), pages 1-27, July.
    19. Yang, Chunzhen & Liu, Jingquan & Zeng, Yuyun & Xie, Guangyao, 2019. "Real-time condition monitoring and fault detection of components based on machine-learning reconstruction model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 433-441.
    20. Odofin, Sarah & Bentley, Edward & Aikhuele, Daniel, 2018. "Robust fault estimation for wind turbine energy via hybrid systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 289-299.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:3:p:697-:d:1331018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.