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Cooling Degree Models and Future Energy Demand in the Residential Sector. A Seven-Country Case Study

Author

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  • Raúl Castaño-Rosa

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, University Carlos III of Madrid, Avenue of the University 30, 28911 Leganés, Spain
    Faculty of the Built Environment, Tampere University, Korkeakoulunkatu 1, 33720 Tampere, Finland)

  • Roberto Barrella

    (Chair of Energy and Poverty—ICAI School of Engineering, Comillas Pontifical University, C. Alberto Aguilera, 25, 28015 Madrid, Spain)

  • Carmen Sánchez-Guevara

    (School of Architecture (ETSAM), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Spain, Avda. Juan de Herrera 4, 28040 Madrid, Spain)

  • Ricardo Barbosa

    (ISISE, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minho, 4800-058 Guimarães, Portugal)

  • Ioanna Kyprianou

    (Energy, Environment, Water Research Centre (EEWRC), The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, Nicosia 2121, Cyprus)

  • Eleftheria Paschalidou

    (Applied Economics Laboratory (AELab), School of Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 541 24 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Nikolaos S. Thomaidis

    (Applied Economics Laboratory (AELab), School of Economics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 541 24 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Dusana Dokupilova

    (Institute for Forecasting, Centre of Social and Psychological Studies, Slovak Academy of Sciences, 811 05 Bratislava, Slovakia)

  • João Pedro Gouveia

    (CENSE—Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, NOVA School of Science and Technology, NOVA University Lisbon, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal)

  • József Kádár

    (Haifa Center for German and European Studies, University of Haifa, Abba Khoushy Ave 199, Haifa 3498838, Israel
    Arava Institute for Environmental Studies, and The Dead Sea and Arava Science Center, Kibbutz Ketura, D.N. Hevel Eilot 88840, Israel)

  • Tareq Abu Hamed

    (Arava Institute for Environmental Studies, and The Dead Sea and Arava Science Center, Kibbutz Ketura, D.N. Hevel Eilot 88840, Israel)

  • Pedro Palma

    (CENSE—Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, NOVA School of Science and Technology, NOVA University Lisbon, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal)

Abstract

The intensity and duration of hot weather and the number of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, are increasing, leading to a growing need for space cooling energy demand. Together with the building stock’s low energy performance, this phenomenon may also increase households’ energy consumption. On the other hand, the low level of ownership of cooling equipment can cause low energy consumption, leading to a lack of indoor thermal comfort and several health-related problems, yet increasing the risk of energy poverty in summer. Understanding future temperature variations and the associated impacts on building cooling demand will allow mitigating future issues related to a warmer climate. In this respect, this paper analyses the effects of change in temperatures in the residential sector cooling demand in 2050 for a case study of nineteen cities across seven countries: Cyprus, Finland, Greece, Israel, Portugal, Slovakia, and Spain, by estimating cooling degree days and hours (CDD and CDH). CDD and CDH are calculated using both fixed and adaptive thermal comfort temperature thresholds for 2020 and 2050, understanding their strengths and weaknesses to assess the effects of warmer temperatures. Results suggest a noticeable average increase in CDD and CDH values, up to double, by using both thresholds for 2050, with a particular interest in northern countries where structural modifications in the building stock and occupants’ behavior should be anticipated. Furthermore, the use of the adaptive thermal comfort threshold shows that the projected temperature increases for 2050 might affect people’s capability to adapt their comfort band (i.e., indoor habitability) as temperatures would be higher than the maximum admissible values for people’s comfort and health.

Suggested Citation

  • Raúl Castaño-Rosa & Roberto Barrella & Carmen Sánchez-Guevara & Ricardo Barbosa & Ioanna Kyprianou & Eleftheria Paschalidou & Nikolaos S. Thomaidis & Dusana Dokupilova & João Pedro Gouveia & József Ká, 2021. "Cooling Degree Models and Future Energy Demand in the Residential Sector. A Seven-Country Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:5:p:2987-:d:513691
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Núñez-Peiró & Anna Mavrogianni & Phil Symonds & Carmen Sánchez-Guevara Sánchez & F. Javier Neila González, 2021. "Modelling Long-Term Urban Temperatures with Less Training Data: A Comparative Study Using Neural Networks in the City of Madrid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
    2. Adriana Grigorescu & Camelia Speranta Pirciog & Cristina Lincaru, 2024. "Space–Time Forecasting of Heating & Cooling Energy Needs as an Energy Poverty Measure in Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-19, October.
    3. Kristian Fabbri, 2024. "Energy Poverty and Poor Buildings: A Brief Literature Review to Promote New Topics for Future Studies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Kondi-Akara, Ghafi & Hingray, Benoit & Francois, Baptiste & Diedhiou, Arona, 2023. "Recent trends in urban electricity consumption for cooling in West and Central African countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    5. Lise Desvallées, 2022. "Low-carbon retrofits in social housing: Energy efficiency, multidimensional energy poverty, and domestic comfort strategies in southern Europe [Social housing providers have a significant amount of," Post-Print hal-03456394, HAL.
    6. Roberto Barrella & José Carlos Romero & Lucía Mariño, 2022. "Proposing a Novel Minimum Income Standard Approach to Energy Poverty Assessment: A European Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Stojilovska, Ana & Guyet, Rachel & Mahoney, Katherine & Gouveia, João Pedro & Castaño-Rosa, Raúl & Živčič, Lidija & Barbosa, Ricardo & Tkalec, Tomislav, 2022. "Energy poverty and emerging debates: Beyond the traditional triangle of energy poverty drivers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Alireza Karimi & You Joung Kim & Negar Mohammad Zadeh & Antonio García-Martínez & Shahram Delfani & Robert D. Brown & David Moreno-Rangel & Pir Mohammad, 2022. "Assessment of Outdoor Design Conditions on the Energy Performance of Cooling Systems in Future Climate Scenarios—A Case Study over Three Cities of Texas, Unites States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.

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