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Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Cooling Events in Winter over China and Their Relationship with Arctic Oscillation

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  • Shuaifeng Song

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Xiaodong Yan

    (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

Abstract

Extreme weather and climate events are becoming increasingly frequent and have gained an increasing amount of attention. Extreme cooling (EC) events are a major challenge to socioeconomic sustainability and human health. Based on meteorological stations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial distributions of EC events in winter in China by using the relative threshold and the relationship between EC events and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index during the period of 1961–2017. The results show that the frequency of EC events in China decreased by 0.730 d in these 57 years, with a trend of −0.1 d/10 y. Northeast China had the highest frequency of EC events in winter, with an average of 4 d. In addition, EC events are significantly negatively correlated with the AO index in China, with a correlation coefficient of −0.5, and the AO index accounts for approximately 21% of the EC event variance. The strongest correlations are mainly located in Northwest China. Our research shows that significant changes in the mid–high latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies, which are associated with the AO, are responsible for EC events. These findings provide theoretical guidance for the prediction and simulation of EC events.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuaifeng Song & Xiaodong Yan, 2021. "Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Cooling Events in Winter over China and Their Relationship with Arctic Oscillation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-11, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:20:p:11491-:d:658973
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jeremy Martinich & Allison Crimmins, 2019. "Climate damages and adaptation potential across diverse sectors of the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 397-404, May.
    4. Jian Cheng & Rui Zhu & Zhiwei Xu & Xiangqing Xu & Xu Wang & Kesheng Li & Hong Su, 2014. "Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 59(6), pages 923-931, December.
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