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Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China

Author

Listed:
  • Yao Xiao

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan 430030, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Chengzhen Meng

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan 430030, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Suli Huang

    (Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen 518055, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Yanran Duan

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan 430030, China)

  • Gang Liu

    (Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Shuyuan Yu

    (Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Ji Peng

    (Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control, 2021 Buxin Rd, Shenzhen 518020, China)

  • Jinquan Cheng

    (Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen 518055, China)

  • Ping Yin

    (Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan 430030, China)

Abstract

Temperature change is an important meteorological indicator reflecting weather stability. This study aimed to examine the effects of ambient temperature change on non-accidental mortality using diurnal temperature change (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (TCN) from two perspectives, intra-day and inter-day temperature change, and further, to explore seasonal variations of mortality, identify the susceptible population and investigate the interaction between temperature change and apparent temperature (AT). We collected daily data on cause-specific mortality, air pollutants and meteorological indicators in Shenzhen, China, from 1 January 2013 to 29 December 2017. A Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) were conducted to estimate the effects of season on temperature change-related mortality. In addition, a non-parametric bivariate response surface model was used to explore the interaction between temperature change and AT. The cumulative effect of DTR was a U-shaped curve for non-accidental mortality, whereas the curve for TCN was nearly monotonic. The overall relative risks (RRs) of non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality were 1.407 (95% CI: 1.233–1.606), 1.470 (95% CI: 1.220–1.771) and 1.741 (95% CI: 1.157–2.620) from exposure to extreme large DTR (99th) in cold seasons. However, no statistically significant effects were observed in warm seasons. As for TCN, the effects were higher in cold seasons than warm seasons, with the largest RR of 1.611 (95% CI: 1.384–1.876). The elderly and females were more sensitive, and low apparent temperature had a higher effect on temperature change-related non-accidental mortality. Temperature change was positively correlated with an increased risk of non-accidental mortality in Shenzhen. Both female and elderly people are more vulnerable to the potential adverse effects, especially in cold seasons. Low AT may enhance the effects of temperature change.

Suggested Citation

  • Yao Xiao & Chengzhen Meng & Suli Huang & Yanran Duan & Gang Liu & Shuyuan Yu & Ji Peng & Jinquan Cheng & Ping Yin, 2021. "Short-Term Effect of Temperature Change on Non-Accidental Mortality in Shenzhen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:16:p:8760-:d:617853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Jian Cheng & Rui Zhu & Zhiwei Xu & Xiangqing Xu & Xu Wang & Kesheng Li & Hong Su, 2014. "Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 59(6), pages 923-931, December.
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