IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v11y2018i10p2850-d177278.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Schedule Modeling to Estimate Typical Construction Durations and Areas of Risk for 1000 MW Ultra-Critical Coal-Fired Power Plants

Author

Listed:
  • Hyun-Chul Lee

    (Korea East-West Power Agency Company, Ulsan 44543, Korea)

  • Eul-Bum Lee

    (Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology & Graduate School of Engineering Mastership, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang 37673, Korea)

  • Douglas Alleman

    (Construction Engineering and Management, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0428, USA)

Abstract

To date, Korea has built four 1000 MW gross-power ultra-critical coal-fired power plants. With the introduction of this new power plant type, there is a need for the development of best practices and lessons learned associated with its construction. One such need identified as a gap in literature is the early project planning estimation of project duration. To fill this research gap, this study utilized the Program Evaluation and Review Technique/Critical Path Method (PERT/CPM) and Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the appropriate construction duration at the planning stage of a new 1000 MW class coal-fired power plant project. Through the case study of the four Korean ultra-critical coal-fired power plants in operation, there was found an 85% likelihood of construction duration to be between 64 and 68 months. From interviews with subject matter experts, the most significant risk factors were found to be labor strikes and construction safety incidents. The findings within aid early planning decision makers by providing a replicable and accurate schedule estimation process. While the findings are based on Korean power plants, the results of this research can be used as a tool for coal-fired power plant construction schedule estimation worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun-Chul Lee & Eul-Bum Lee & Douglas Alleman, 2018. "Schedule Modeling to Estimate Typical Construction Durations and Areas of Risk for 1000 MW Ultra-Critical Coal-Fired Power Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:10:p:2850-:d:177278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/10/2850/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/11/10/2850/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seul-Ye Lim & Hyo-Jin Kim & Seung-Hoon Yoo, 2017. "South Korean Household’s Willingness to Pay for Replacing Coal with Natural Gas? A View from CO 2 Emissions Reduction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Guolian Hou & Yu Yang & Zhuo Jiang & Quan Li & Jianhua Zhang, 2016. "A New Approach of Modeling an Ultra-Super-Critical Power Plant for Performance Improvement," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Qingyou Yan & Yaxian Wang & Tomas Baležentis & Yikai Sun & Dalia Streimikiene, 2018. "Energy-Related CO 2 Emission in China’s Provincial Thermal Electricity Generation: Driving Factors and Possibilities for Abatement," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Chul-Seung Hong & Eul-Bum Lee, 2018. "Power Plant Economic Analysis: Maximizing Lifecycle Profitability by Simulating Preliminary Design Solutions of Steam-Cycle Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
    5. Bugge, Jørgen & Kjær, Sven & Blum, Rudolph, 2006. "High-efficiency coal-fired power plants development and perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1437-1445.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daekyoung Yi & Eul-Bum Lee & Junyong Ahn, 2019. "Onshore Oil and Gas Design Schedule Management Process Through Time-Impact Simulations Analyses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Dong-Jin Cho & Eul-Bum Lee & Jae-Min Cho & Douglas Alleman, 2019. "Reducing the Superheating of Extraction Stream on Advanced-Ultra Super Critical Power Plants with Regenerative Turbines in South Korea: An Economic Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik, 2018. "Approaches to Methods of Risk Analysis and Assessment Regarding the Gas Supply to a City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & Han-Suk Choi, 2019. "A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Yun-Ju Chen & Sheng Ming Hsu & Shu-Yi Liao & Tsung-Chi Chen & Wei-Chun Tseng, 2019. "Natural Gas or Algal Reef: Survey-Based Valuations of Pro-Gas and Pro-Reef Groups Specifically for Policy Advising," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Meng Yue & Guoqian Ma & Yuetao Shi, 2020. "Analysis of Gas Recirculation Influencing Factors of a Double Reheat 1000 MW Unit with the Reheat Steam Temperature under Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-22, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fangyi Li & Zhaoyang Ye & Xilin Xiao & Dawei Ma, 2019. "Environmental Benefits of Stock Evolution of Coal-Fired Power Generators in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Mara Madaleno & Victor Moutinho & Jorge Mota, 2015. "Time Relationships among Electricity and Fossil Fuel Prices: Industry and Households in Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 525-533.
    3. Wu, Junjie & Hou, Hongjuan & Yang, Yongping & Hu, Eric, 2015. "Annual performance of a solar aided coal-fired power generation system (SACPG) with various solar field areas and thermal energy storage capacity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 123-133.
    4. Giovanna Croxatto Vega & Joshua Sohn & Sander Bruun & Stig Irving Olsen & Morten Birkved, 2019. "Maximizing Environmental Impact Savings Potential through Innovative Biorefinery Alternatives: An Application of the TM-LCA Framework for Regional Scale Impact Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Yue Dai & Nan Li & Rongrong Gu & Xiaodong Zhu, 2018. "Can China’s Carbon Emissions Trading Rights Mechanism Transform its Manufacturing Industry? Based on the Perspective of Enterprise Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, July.
    6. Hou, Guolian & Gong, Linjuan & Huang, Congzhi & Zhang, Jianhua, 2020. "Fuzzy modeling and fast model predictive control of gas turbine system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    7. Hee-Kwan Shin & Jae-Min Cho & Eul-Bum Lee, 2019. "Electrical Power Characteristics and Economic Analysis of Distributed Generation System Using Renewable Energy: Applied to Iron and Steel Plants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-27, November.
    8. Kalimuthu, Selvam & Karmakar, Sujit & Kolar, Ajit Kumar, 2017. "3-E analysis of a Pressurized Pulverized Combined Cycle (PPCC) power plant using high ash Indian coal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 634-648.
    9. Seong-Jae Seo & Ju-Hee Kim & Seung-Hoon Yoo, 2020. "Public Preference for Increasing Natural Gas Generation for Reducing CO 2 Emissions in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Yuanyuan Pu & Derek B. Apel & Alicja Szmigiel & Jie Chen, 2019. "Image Recognition of Coal and Coal Gangue Using a Convolutional Neural Network and Transfer Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-11, May.
    11. Perejón, Antonio & Romeo, Luis M. & Lara, Yolanda & Lisbona, Pilar & Martínez, Ana & Valverde, Jose Manuel, 2016. "The Calcium-Looping technology for CO2 capture: On the important roles of energy integration and sorbent behavior," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 787-807.
    12. Janusz Kotowicz & Sebastian Michalski & Mateusz Brzęczek, 2019. "The Characteristics of a Modern Oxy-Fuel Power Plant," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-34, September.
    13. So-Won Choi & Bo-Guk Seo & Eul-Bum Lee, 2023. "Machine Learning-Based Tap Temperature Prediction and Control for Optimized Power Consumption in Stainless Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF) of Steel Plants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-31, April.
    14. Zhang, Xinghui & Yang, Jiaojiao & Zhao, Xudong, 2018. "Optimal study of the rural house space heating systems employing the AHP and FCE methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 631-641.
    15. Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska, 2019. "Do Consumers Want to Pay for Green Electricity? A Case Study from Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, March.
    16. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro & Todeschini, Nicola, 2013. "Generation IV nuclear reactors: Current status and future prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1503-1520.
    17. Pettinau, Alberto & Ferrara, Francesca & Tola, Vittorio & Cau, Giorgio, 2017. "Techno-economic comparison between different technologies for CO2-free power generation from coal," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 426-439.
    18. Jian Chai & Wenyue Fan & Jing Han, 2019. "Does the Energy Efficiency of Power Companies Affect Their Industry Status? A DEA Analysis of Listed Companies in Thermal Power Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    19. Yali Zhang & Yihan Wang & Xiaoshu Hou, 2019. "Carbon Mitigation for Industrial Sectors in the Jing-Jin-Ji Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    20. Al-Momani, Ahmad & Mohamed, Omar & Abu Elhaija, Wejdan, 2022. "Multiple processes modeling and identification for a cleaner supercritical power plant via Grey Wolf Optimizer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:10:p:2850-:d:177278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.