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Schedule Modeling to Estimate Typical Construction Durations and Areas of Risk for 1000 MW Ultra-Critical Coal-Fired Power Plants

Author

Listed:
  • Hyun-Chul Lee

    (Korea East-West Power Agency Company, Ulsan 44543, Korea)

  • Eul-Bum Lee

    (Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology & Graduate School of Engineering Mastership, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Pohang 37673, Korea)

  • Douglas Alleman

    (Construction Engineering and Management, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0428, USA)

Abstract

To date, Korea has built four 1000 MW gross-power ultra-critical coal-fired power plants. With the introduction of this new power plant type, there is a need for the development of best practices and lessons learned associated with its construction. One such need identified as a gap in literature is the early project planning estimation of project duration. To fill this research gap, this study utilized the Program Evaluation and Review Technique/Critical Path Method (PERT/CPM) and Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the appropriate construction duration at the planning stage of a new 1000 MW class coal-fired power plant project. Through the case study of the four Korean ultra-critical coal-fired power plants in operation, there was found an 85% likelihood of construction duration to be between 64 and 68 months. From interviews with subject matter experts, the most significant risk factors were found to be labor strikes and construction safety incidents. The findings within aid early planning decision makers by providing a replicable and accurate schedule estimation process. While the findings are based on Korean power plants, the results of this research can be used as a tool for coal-fired power plant construction schedule estimation worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun-Chul Lee & Eul-Bum Lee & Douglas Alleman, 2018. "Schedule Modeling to Estimate Typical Construction Durations and Areas of Risk for 1000 MW Ultra-Critical Coal-Fired Power Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:10:p:2850-:d:177278
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Qingyou Yan & Yaxian Wang & Tomas Baležentis & Yikai Sun & Dalia Streimikiene, 2018. "Energy-Related CO 2 Emission in China’s Provincial Thermal Electricity Generation: Driving Factors and Possibilities for Abatement," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Bugge, Jørgen & Kjær, Sven & Blum, Rudolph, 2006. "High-efficiency coal-fired power plants development and perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 1437-1445.
    5. Chul-Seung Hong & Eul-Bum Lee, 2018. "Power Plant Economic Analysis: Maximizing Lifecycle Profitability by Simulating Preliminary Design Solutions of Steam-Cycle Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daekyoung Yi & Eul-Bum Lee & Junyong Ahn, 2019. "Onshore Oil and Gas Design Schedule Management Process Through Time-Impact Simulations Analyses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Dong-Jin Cho & Eul-Bum Lee & Jae-Min Cho & Douglas Alleman, 2019. "Reducing the Superheating of Extraction Stream on Advanced-Ultra Super Critical Power Plants with Regenerative Turbines in South Korea: An Economic Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Barbara Tchórzewska-Cieślak & Katarzyna Pietrucha-Urbanik, 2018. "Approaches to Methods of Risk Analysis and Assessment Regarding the Gas Supply to a City," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & Han-Suk Choi, 2019. "A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Yun-Ju Chen & Sheng Ming Hsu & Shu-Yi Liao & Tsung-Chi Chen & Wei-Chun Tseng, 2019. "Natural Gas or Algal Reef: Survey-Based Valuations of Pro-Gas and Pro-Reef Groups Specifically for Policy Advising," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Meng Yue & Guoqian Ma & Yuetao Shi, 2020. "Analysis of Gas Recirculation Influencing Factors of a Double Reheat 1000 MW Unit with the Reheat Steam Temperature under Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-22, August.

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