IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v14y1994i4p477-481.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Principles of Good Practice for the Use of Monte Carlo Techniques in Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessments

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Burmaster
  • Paul D. Anderson

Abstract

We propose 14 principles of good practice to assist people in performing and reviewing probabilistic or Monte Carlo risk assessments, especially in the context of the federal and state statutes concerning chemicals in the environment. Monte Carlo risk assessments for hazardous waste sites that follow these principles will be easier to understand, will explicitly distinguish assumptions from data, and will consider and quantify effects that could otherwise lead to misinterpretation of the results. The proposed principles are neither mutually exclusive nor collectively exhaustive. We think and hope that these principles will evolve as new ideas arise and come into practice.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Burmaster & Paul D. Anderson, 1994. "Principles of Good Practice for the Use of Monte Carlo Techniques in Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 477-481, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:14:y:1994:i:4:p:477-481
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00265.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00265.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00265.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew E. Smith & P. Barry Ryan & John S. Evans, 1992. "The Effect of Neglecting Correlations When Propagating Uncertainty and Estimating the Population Distribution of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 467-474, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Per Sander & Bo Bergbäck & Tomas Öberg, 2006. "Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1363-1375, October.
    2. Olivier Chanel & Laura Perez & Nino Künzli & Sylvia Medina, 2016. "The hidden economic burden of air pollution-related morbidity: evidence from the Aphekom project," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(9), pages 1101-1115, December.
    3. Olivier Chanel, 2022. "Impact of COVID‑19 Activity Restrictions on Air Pollution: Methodological Considerations in the Economic Valuation of the Long‑Term Effects on Mortality [Impact sur la pollution de l’air des restri," Working Papers hal-03778336, HAL.
    4. Charles N. Haas, 1997. "Importance of Distributional Form in Characterizing Inputs to Monte Carlo Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 107-113, February.
    5. Michael Greenberg & Charles Haas & Anthony Cox & Karen Lowrie & Katherine McComas & Warner North, 2012. "Ten Most Important Accomplishments in Risk Analysis, 1980–2010," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(5), pages 771-781, May.
    6. Serkan Erbis & Zeynep Ok & Jacqueline A. Isaacs & James C. Benneyan & Sagar Kamarthi, 2016. "Review of Research Trends and Methods in Nano Environmental, Health, and Safety Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(8), pages 1644-1665, August.
    7. Martí Nadal & Vikas Kumar & Marta Schuhmacher & José L. Domingo, 2008. "Applicability of a Neuroprobabilistic Integral Risk Index for the Environmental Management of Polluted Areas: A Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 271-286, April.
    8. Frédéric Dor & Pascal Empereur‐Bissonnet & Denis Zmirou & Vincent Nedellec & Jean‐Marie Haguenoer & Frans Jongeneelen & Alain Person & William Dab & Colin Ferguson, 2003. "Validation of Multimedia Models Assessing Exposure to PAHs—The SOLEX Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(5), pages 1047-1057, October.
    9. Janssen, Hans, 2013. "Monte-Carlo based uncertainty analysis: Sampling efficiency and sampling convergence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 123-132.
    10. Olivier Chanel, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 Activity Restrictions on Air Pollution: Methodological Considerations in the Economic Valuation of the Long-Term Effects on Mortality," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 534-35, pages 103-118.
    11. Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee, 2019. "A Forecast Model for the Level of Engineering Maturity Impact on Contractor’s Procurement and Construction Costs for Offshore EPC Megaprojects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    12. Robert T. Clemen & Terence Reilly, 1999. "Correlations and Copulas for Decision and Risk Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 208-224, February.
    13. Timothy M. Barry, 1996. "Recommendations on the Testing and Use of Pseudo‐Random Number Generators Used in Monte Carlo Analysis for Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 93-105, February.
    14. Ning Qin & Ayibota Tuerxunbieke & Qin Wang & Xing Chen & Rong Hou & Xiangyu Xu & Yunwei Liu & Dongqun Xu & Shu Tao & Xiaoli Duan, 2021. "Key Factors for Improving the Carcinogenic Risk Assessment of PAH Inhalation Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-14, October.
    15. Maxime Rigaud & Jurgen Buekers & Jos Bessems & Xavier Basagaña & Sandrine Mathy & Mark Nieuwenhuijsen & Rémy Slama, 2024. "The methodology of quantitative risk assessment studies," Post-Print hal-04523440, HAL.
    16. Maria F. Poças & Jorge C. Oliveira & Rainer Brandsch & Timothy Hogg, 2010. "Feasibility Study on the Use of Probabilistic Migration Modeling in Support of Exposure Assessment from Food Contact Materials," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(7), pages 1052-1061, July.
    17. Harry M. Marks & Margaret E. Coleman & C.‐T. Jordan Lin & Tanya Roberts, 1998. "Topics in Microbial Risk Assessment: Dynamic Flow Tree Process," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(3), pages 309-328, June.
    18. Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & Han-Suk Choi, 2019. "A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, February.
    19. K. D. M. Pintar & A. Fazil & F. Pollari & D. F. Charron & D. Waltner‐Toews & S. A. McEwen, 2010. "A Risk Assessment Model to Evaluate the Role of Fecal Contamination in Recreational Water on the Incidence of Cryptosporidiosis at the Community Level in Ontario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 49-64, January.
    20. Charles N. Haas, 1999. "On Modeling Correlated Random Variables in Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 1205-1214, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. A. E. Ades & Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher, 2006. "Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 373-381, April.
    2. David E. Burmaster, 1998. "Lognormal Distributions for Skin Area as a Function of Body Weight," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 27-32, February.
    3. David E. Burmaster & Donald M. Murray, 1998. "A Trivariate Distribution for the Height, Weight, and Fat of Adult Men," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 385-389, August.
    4. Robert T. Clemen & Terence Reilly, 1999. "Correlations and Copulas for Decision and Risk Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(2), pages 208-224, February.
    5. Vicki M. Bier & Shi‐Woei Lin, 2013. "On the Treatment of Uncertainty and Variability in Making Decisions About Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1899-1907, October.
    6. Roy L. Smith, 1994. "Use of Monte Carlo Simulation for Human Exposure Assessment at a Superfund Site," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 433-439, August.
    7. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2012. "A Copulas-Based Approach to Modeling Dependence in Decision Trees," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 225-242, February.
    8. Wout Slob, 1994. "Uncertainty Analysis in Multiplicative Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 571-576, August.
    9. David E. Burmaster, 1998. "Lognormal Distributions for Total Water Intake and Tap Water Intake by Pregnant and Lactating Women in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 215-219, April.
    10. Robert T. Clemen & Gregory W. Fischer & Robert L. Winkler, 2000. "Assessing Dependence: Some Experimental Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1100-1115, August.
    11. Michael R. Adams & Cynthia A. Hanna & Janet A. Mayernik & William M. Mendez, 1994. "Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment for Exposures to Estuary Sediments and Biota Contaminated with Polychlorinated Biphenyls, Polychlorinated Terphenyls and Other Toxic Substances," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 577-594, August.
    12. Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2010. "Water Management, Risk, and Uncertainty: Things We Wish We Knew in the 21st Century," Western Economics Forum, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15.
    13. John Bukowski & Leo Korn & Daniel Wartenberg, 1995. "Correlated Inputs in Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Effects of Distributional Shape," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 215-219, April.
    14. Brent Finley & Dennis Paustenbach, 1994. "The Benefits of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment: Three Case Studies Involving Contaminated Air, Water, and Soil," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 53-73, February.
    15. Jeremy D. Goldhaber-Fiebert & Hawre J. Jalal, 2016. "Some Health States Are Better Than Others," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 36(8), pages 927-940, November.
    16. Fritz A. Seiler & Joseph L. Alvarez, 1996. "On the Selection of Distributions for Stochastic Variables," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 5-18, February.
    17. Charles N. Haas, 1999. "On Modeling Correlated Random Variables in Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(6), pages 1205-1214, December.
    18. Patricia Rogetzer & Lena Silbermayr & Werner Jammernegg, 2018. "Sustainable sourcing of strategic raw materials by integrating recycled materials," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 421-451, September.
    19. Luis V. Montiel & J. Eric Bickel, 2012. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Decision Making with Partial Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 329-347, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:14:y:1994:i:4:p:477-481. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.