IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i11p3194-d238051.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Shihong Zeng

    (Applied Economics Department, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
    Beijing City Sub-center Institute, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
    Finance and Economics Development Research Center, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Xinwei Zhang

    (Applied Economics Department, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
    Finance and Economics Development Research Center, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Xiaowei Wang

    (Finance and Economics Development Research Center, College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

  • Guowang Zeng

    (Applied Management and Computer Science, Management Department, LUISS University, 00197 Rome, Italy)

Abstract

Currently, China’s aging population, high savings rate and high housing asset prices coexist, which has become a hot issue in academic research. First, considering the life-cycle hypothesis and overlapping generations model, asset prices are negatively correlated with the population dependency ratio and positively correlated with household savings. Second, based on census data from prefecture-level cities, a pooled regression model and two-stage least squares (2SLS) are used in this empirical research. The child dependency ratio was found to have a significant negative impact on housing prices, while the elderly dependency ratio had a positive impact on housing prices. The positive relationship between household savings and housing prices is highly significant. Finally, the interaction analysis shows that the impact of population aging on housing prices differs under different levels of household savings; thus, population aging affects housing prices through household savings, and the mediator dilutes and weakens this impact. The elderly generation’s release of savings could gradually inhibit housing prices. Population aging causes long-run downside risks but not a market meltdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:11:p:3194-:d:238051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/11/3194/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/11/3194/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Danya Kim & Jangik Jin, 2019. "The Effect of Land Use on Housing Price and Rent: Empirical Evidence of Job Accessibility and Mixed Land Use," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Green, Richard K. & Lee, Hyojung, 2016. "Age, demographics, and the demand for housing, revisited," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 86-98.
    3. Jorge Chica-Olmo & Rafael Cano-Guervos & Mario Chica-Rivas, 2019. "Estimation of Housing Price Variations Using Spatio-Temporal Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    5. Engelhardt, Gary V. & Poterba, James M., 1991. "House prices and demographic change: Canadian evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 539-546, December.
    6. Giam Cipriani, 2014. "Population aging and PAYG pensions in the OLG model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 251-256, January.
    7. Shi, Lisi & Suen, Richard M.H., 2014. "Asset bubbles in an overlapping generations model with endogenous labor supply," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 164-167.
    8. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-896, December.
    9. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Hupkes, Hermen Jan, 2015. "Local determinacy of prices in an overlapping generations model with continuous trading," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 16-24.
    10. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
    11. Brounen, Dirk & Koedijk, Kees G. & Pownall, Rachel A.J., 2016. "Household financial planning and savings behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 95-107.
    12. Wright, Robert & Leishman, Chris & Gibb, Kenneth & Chen, Yu, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-78, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    13. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    14. Charles Yuji HORIOKA & Wataru SUZUKI & Tatsuo HATTA, 2007. "Aging, Savings, and Public Pensions in Japan," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 2(2), pages 303-319, December.
    15. Junmin Wan, 2015. "Household Savings and Housing Prices in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 172-192, January.
    16. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    17. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 589-595, November.
    18. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    19. Angela Maddaloni & Alberto Musso & Philipp Rother & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger & Thomas Westermann, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 51, European Central Bank.
    20. Lu Han, 2010. "The Effects of Price Risk on Housing Demand: Empirical Evidence from U.S. Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(11), pages 3889-3928, November.
    21. Hort, Katinka, 1998. "The Determinants of Urban House Price Fluctuations in Sweden 1968-1994," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 93-120, June.
    22. Yu Chen & Kenneth Gibb & Chris Leishman & Robert Wright, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 523-542, November.
    23. Jie Gan, 2010. "Housing Wealth and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Large Panel of Households," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2229-2267, June.
    24. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May.
    25. Lerbs, Oliver & Hiller, Norbert, 2015. "Aging and Urban House Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113136, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    26. repec:ags:aaea07:380 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Lyons, Ronan C., 2018. "Credit conditions and the housing price ratio: Evidence from Ireland’s boom and bust," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 84-96.
    28. Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Age, housing demand, and real house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August.
    29. Westermann, Thomas & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie & Rother, Philipp & Musso, Alberto & Maddaloni, Angela, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 51, European Central Bank.
    30. repec:hal:pseose:hal-01175922 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 2014. "Fertility and mortality changes in an overlapping-generations model with realistic demography," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 512-521.
    32. Fabiana Forte & Valentina Antoniucci & Pierfrancesco De Paola, 2018. "Immigration and the Housing Market: The Case of Castel Volturno, in Campania Region, Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, January.
    33. Meng Li & Kunrong Shen, 2013. "Population Aging and Housing Consumption: A Nonlinear Relationship in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(5), pages 60-77, September.
    34. Michael Magill, 2004. "Demography and the Stock Market," Theory workshop papers 658612000000000080, UCLA Department of Economics.
    35. Chen, Yu & Gibb, Kenneth D. & Leishman, Chris & Wright, Robert E., 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 6668, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    36. Cecilia Reynaud & Sara Miccoli, 2018. "Depopulation and the Aging Population: The Relationship in Italian Municipalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, March.
    37. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    38. Ross Guest & Robyn Swift, 2010. "Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 240-253, September.
    39. Eric Levin & Alberto Montagnoli & Robert E. Wright, 2009. "Demographic Change and the Housing Market: Evidence from a Comparison of Scotland and England," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 27-43, January.
    40. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
    41. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
    42. Jäger, Philipp & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Demographic change and house prices: Headwind or tailwind?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 82-85.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Md Jamil, Abd Rahim & Law, Siong Hook & Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2024. "Financial inclusion and income inequality in developing countries: The role of aging populations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yan, Jingyang & Wang, Fuhao, 2024. "Impact of population aging on food security in the context of artificial intelligence: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Yihua Wang & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2022. "The relationship between demographic change and house price: Chinese evidence," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-65, February.
    4. Xiaoping Zhou & Tong Lei & Yuyao Wang & Tianzheng Zhang & Yingjie Zhang & Yan Song & Yingxiang Zeng, 2022. "The spillover effect of senior neighbors on housing prices: Evidence from Beijing, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 1783-1812, December.
    5. To Quyen Le & Le-Vinh-Lam Doan & Hoang Nam Le, 2024. "An Approach to Analyzing Migration Flow and House Price Data: Exploring Spatial Linkages between Flow, Price, Distance, Age at the Local Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-22, August.
    6. Pablo Garmendia & Gabriela Topa & Teresa Herrador & Montserrat Hernández, 2019. "Does Death Anxiety Moderate the Adequacy of Retirement Savings? Empirical Evidence from 40-Plus Clients of Spanish Financial Advisory Firms," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-13, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yihua Wang & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2022. "The relationship between demographic change and house price: Chinese evidence," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-65, February.
    2. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    3. Philipp Breidenbach & Philipp Jäger & Lisa Taruttis, 2024. "Aging and real estate prices in Germany," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 44(4), pages 383-401, December.
    4. Sun, Tianyu & Chand, Satish & Sharpe, Keiran, 2018. "Effect of Aging on Housing Prices: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generation Model," MPRA Paper 89347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
    6. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    7. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2014. "The potential effect of US baby-boom retirees on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 106-121.
    8. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
    9. Ann , Jihee & Park, Cheolbeom, 2022. "Demographic Structure and House Prices in the United States: Reconciliation Using Metropolitan Area Data," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 47(3), pages 57-71, September.
    10. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2006. "Can baby-boomers' retirement increase stock prices?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 284-299, May.
    11. Olivia S Mitchell & John Piggott & Michael Sherris & Shaun Yow, 2006. "Financial Innovation for an Ageing World," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Creina Day, 2018. "Population and house prices in the United Kingdom," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(2), pages 127-141, May.
    13. Xinrui Wang & Eddie Chi-Man Hui & Jiuxia Sun, 2018. "Population Aging, Mobility, and Real Estate Price: Evidence from Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    14. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    15. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    16. Šević, Aleksandar & Brawn, Derek, 2015. "Do demographic changes matter? A cross-country perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 36-61.
    17. Hettihewa, Samanthala & Saha, Shrabani & Zhang, Hanxiong, 2018. "Does an aging population influence stock markets? Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 142-158.
    18. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and asset prices," Papers 07-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    19. Döring, Diether & Buth, Rainer & Rosengart, Anja Helena, 2007. "Bedroht die künftige demographische Entwicklung die Vermögenswerte kapitalgedeckter Altersversorgungssysteme? Auswertung des Standes der internationalen Forschung," Arbeitspapiere 128, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    20. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:11:p:3194-:d:238051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.