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Aging and urban house prices

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  • Hiller, Norbert
  • Lerbs, Oliver W.

Abstract

This paper investigates how changes to the age distribution of cities' resident populations shape the growth rate of local house prices in different market segments. For estimation purposes, we combine city-level demographic information with detailed housing price data for 87 German cities over 1995–2014. We show that house prices and key demographic variables exhibit strong cross-section dependence but are panel stationary in first differences when this form of dependence is accounted for. Employing a mixed-regressive spatial panel model that incorporates spatial fixed effects as well as changes in city size, purchasing power and mortgage rates, we find that real urban house price appreciation tends to be substantially lower in cities that age more rapidly. Population aging has heterogeneous effects across housing segments: sales price growth of condominiums and single-family homes is negatively related to stronger growth of the old-age dependency ratio, while a positive association is found for aging and real rent growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:276-291
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2016.07.010
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    6. Xiaoping Zhou & Tong Lei & Yuyao Wang & Tianzheng Zhang & Yingjie Zhang & Yan Song & Yingxiang Zeng, 2022. "The spillover effect of senior neighbors on housing prices: Evidence from Beijing, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 1783-1812, December.
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    8. Bilotkach, Volodymyr & Braakmann, Nils & Gonzalo-Almorox, Eduardo & Wildman, John, 2017. "The effect of house prices on the long-term care market: Evidence from England," MPRA Paper 81987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    10. Yihua Wang & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2022. "The relationship between demographic change and house price: Chinese evidence," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-65, February.
    11. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
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    13. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Judd N. L. Cramer, 2020. "The Millennial Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," Papers 2003.11565, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    14. Sun, Tianyu & Chand, Satish & Sharpe, Keiran, 2018. "Effect of Aging on Housing Prices: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generation Model," MPRA Paper 89347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Demographic change; Urban areas; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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