IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2018-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population and house prices in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Creina Day

Abstract

Real house prices rise in the United Kingdom amid growing concern of an impending correction. The rate of household formation has increased with strong population growth, due to elevated rates of natural increase and net migration, and lack of growth in average household size, due to a rise in single-person households with population ageing. This paper presents an overlapping generations model of housing, endogenous labour, savings and growth to analyse the effect of an increase in the household formation rate and speculative demand under rational expectations on house prices in a general equilibrium. We find that real house prices rise over time if the rate of household formation outstrips the rate of housing supply, but do not follow a speculative bubble path in the long run. The results explain why the upward trend in real house prices reflects market fundamentals and has continued despite population ageing as the number of working and retired households grows relative to the number of older people seeking to sell.

Suggested Citation

  • Creina Day, 2018. "Population and house prices in the United Kingdom," CAMA Working Papers 2018-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2018-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2018-05/21_2018_day.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    2. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
    3. Wright, Robert & Leishman, Chris & Gibb, Kenneth & Chen, Yu, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-78, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. David Bell & Alasdair Rutherford, 2012. "Long-Term Care and the Housing Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 543-563, November.
    5. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    6. Heijdra, Ben J., 2017. "Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780198784135.
    7. Engelhardt, Gary V. & Poterba, James M., 1991. "House prices and demographic change: Canadian evidence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 539-546, December.
    8. Eric Levin & Alberto Montagnoli & Robert E. Wright, 2009. "Demographic Change and the Housing Market: Evidence from a Comparison of Scotland and England," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 27-43, January.
    9. Yu Chen & Kenneth Gibb & Chris Leishman & Robert Wright, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," Working Papers 1207, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    10. David Miles, 2012. "Population Density, House Prices and Mortgage Design," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 444-466, November.
    11. Yu Chen & Kenneth Gibb & Chris Leishman & Robert Wright, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 523-542, November.
    12. repec:ags:aaea07:380 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Kwakye & Chan Tze Haw, 2020. "Interplay of the Macroeconomy and Real Estate: Systematic Review of Literature," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 262-271.
    2. Day, Creina, 2019. "House prices post-GFC: More household debt for longer," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-102.
    3. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Baako, Kingsley Tetteh & Mintah, Kwabena & Zhang, Quanda, 2021. "Transport infrastructure and house prices in the long run," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Yingchao Lin & Zhili Ma & Ke Zhao & Weiyan Hu & Jing Wei, 2018. "The Impact of Population Migration on Urban Housing Prices: Evidence from China’s Major Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Chen, Jia & Shin, Yongcheol & Zheng, Chaowen, 2022. "Estimation and inference in heterogeneous spatial panels with a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(1), pages 55-79.
    6. Zhou, Qian & Shao, Qinglong & Zhang, Xiaoling & Chen, Jie, 2020. "Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yihua Wang & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2022. "The relationship between demographic change and house price: Chinese evidence," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-65, February.
    2. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    4. Day, Creina, 2019. "House prices post-GFC: More household debt for longer," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-102.
    5. Day, Creina & Guest, Ross, 2016. "Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-132.
    6. David Miles, 2012. "Population Density, House Prices and Mortgage Design," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(5), pages 444-466, November.
    7. Creina Day, 2018. "Australia's Growth in Households and House Prices," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(4), pages 502-511, December.
    8. Borisov, Petar & Petrov, Kamen & Tsonkov, Nikolay, 2024. "Integration perspectives for improving regional policy in rural areas of Bulgaria," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 10(1), March.
    9. Lisa Dust & Wolfgang Maennig, 2007. "Shrinking and Growing Metropolitan Areas - Asymmetric Real Estate Price Reactions?," Working Papers 006, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.
    10. Jina Kim & Seungmin Jee & Seunghan Ro, 2023. "Do Public-Led Housing Site Development Projects Affect Local Housing Prices: A Proposal for a Comprehensive Policy Evaluation Methodology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-27, December.
    11. Maennig, Wolfgang & Dust, Lisa, 2008. "Shrinking and growing metropolitan areas asymmetric real estate price reactions?: The case of German single-family houses," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-69, January.
    12. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2012. "Dynamics of a Protected Housing Market: The Case of Switzerland," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(14), pages 3195-3210, November.
    13. Nicholas Apergis, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Housing Prices: Fresh Evidence from a Global Country Sample," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 189-210.
    14. Xinrui Wang & Eddie Chi-Man Hui & Jiuxia Sun, 2018. "Population Aging, Mobility, and Real Estate Price: Evidence from Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    15. Nicholas Apergis, 2020. "Natural Disasters and Housing Prices: Fresh Evidence from a Global Country Sample," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 815-836.
    16. Clark, Todd E., 1995. "Rents and prices of housing across areas of the United States. A cross-section examination of the present value model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 237-247, April.
    17. Adams, Zeno & Füss, Roland, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-50, March.
    18. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2013. "The impact of an ageing population on economic growth: an exploratory review of the main mechanisms," FEP Working Papers 504, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    19. Richard Meese & Nancy Wallace, 2003. "House Price Dynamics and Market Fundamentals: The Parisian Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1027-1045, May.
    20. Ivan D. Trofimov Nazaria Md. Aris Dickson C. D. Xuan, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Demographic Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Malaysia," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(2), pages 71-96, November.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2018-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.