IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dpr/wpaper/0692.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aging, Saving, and Public Pensions in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Yuji Horioka
  • Wataru Suzuki
  • Tatsuo Hatta

Abstract

We analyze the impact of population aging on Japan's household saving rate and on its public pension system and the impact of that system on Japan's household saving rate and obtain the following results: first, the age structure of Japan's population can explain the level of, and past and future trends in, its household saving rate; second, the rapid aging of Japan's population is causing Japan's household saving rate to decline and this decline can be expected to continue; third, the pay-as-you-go nature of the public pension system, combined with rapid population aging, created considerable intergenerational inequities and increased the saving rates of cohorts born after 1965, which in turn slowed the decline in Japan's household saving rate; and fourth, the 2004 public pension reform alleviated the intergenerational inequities of Japan's public pension system somewhat but will in the long run exacerbate the downward trend in Japan's household saving rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Yuji Horioka & Wataru Suzuki & Tatsuo Hatta, 2007. "Aging, Saving, and Public Pensions in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0692, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2007/DP0692.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," ISER Discussion Paper 0189, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    2. Fumio Hayashi, 1986. "Why Is Japan's Saving Rate So Apparently High?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 147-234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2002. "Are the Japanese Selfish, Altruistic or Dynastic?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 53(1), pages 26-54, March.
    4. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
    5. Tomoki Kitamura & Kunio Nakashima & Masaharu Usuki, 2006. "Risk Analysis of Pension Reserve Investment with Macro Economy Indexation under the 2004 Public Pension Reform (in Japanese)," Economic Analysis, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 178, pages 3-30, November.
    6. Charles Yuji Horioka & Akiko Terada- Hagiwara, 2013. "Savings and investment," Chapters, in: Hal Hill & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (ed.), Asia Rising, chapter 5, pages 137-153, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1990. "Why is Japan's household saving rate so high? A literature survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-92, March.
    8. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1992. "Future trends in Japan's saving rate and the implications thereof for Japan's external imbalance," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 307-330, April.
    9. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2004. "Are the Japanese Unique? An Analysis of Consumption and Saving Behavior in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0606, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2000. "A Cointegration Analysis of the Impact of the Age Structure of the Population on the Household Saving Rate in Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 511-516, August.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_028 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "Do the Elderly Dissave in Japan?," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Sato, Ryuzo & Negishi, Takashi (ed.), 1989. "Developments in Japanese Economics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780126198454.
    14. Charlet Yuji Horioka, 2002. ""Are the Japanese Selfish, Altruistic, or Dynastic?" (in Japanese)," CIRJE J-Series CIRJE-J-70, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    15. Horioka, C.Y., 1991. "Saving in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0248, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tsunao Okumura & Emiko Usui, 2014. "The effect of pension reform on pension-benefit expectations and savings decisions in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(14), pages 1677-1691, May.
    2. Yuan-Ho Hsu & Hiroshi Yoshida & Fengming Chen, 2022. "The Impacts of Population Aging on China’s Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 105-130, January.
    3. Bommier, Antoine, 2009. "Mortality Decline and Aggregate Wealth Accumulation," TSE Working Papers 09-050, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Yoko Mimura, 2023. "Save Today for a Happier Tomorrow: Associations Between Happiness and Financial Preparation in Japan," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 1261-1281, March.
    5. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2010. "The (dis)saving behavior of the aged in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 151-158, August.
    6. Hui Li & Chengyun Duan & Miao David Chunyu, 2021. "A Study of the Factors Influencing the Residential Preferences of the Elderly in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    7. Wataru Suzuki & Yanfei Zhou, 2013. "Does Pessimism Over Pension Prospect Spur Excess Saving? - Evidence Concerning Close-to-Retirement Households in Japan," Gakushuin Economic Papers, Gakushuin University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 227-244.
    8. Latsos Sophia & Schnabl Gunther, 2021. "Determinants of Japanese Household Saving Behavior in the Low-Interest Rate Environment," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 81-99, December.
    9. Ali Saleh Alarussi & Eng Zhi Yen, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growthin Asian Countries," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 33-53.
    10. Michael Graff & Kam-Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, "undated". "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    11. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    12. Brender,Anton & Pisani, Florence & Gagna, Emile, 2012. "The Sovereign Debt Crisis: Placing a curb on growth," CEPS Papers 6951, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    13. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2010. "Aging And Saving In Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 46-55, February.
    14. Lans, Cheryl, 2012. "A shrinking population offers opportunities for a sustainable Japan," MPRA Paper 61991, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Noriyuki TAKAYAMA & Yukinobu KITAMURA, 2009. "How to Make the Japanese Public Pension System Reliable and Workable," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 97-116, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2021. "Is the selfish life-cycle model more applicable in Japan and, if so, why? A literature survey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 157-187, March.
    2. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2007. "A Survey of Household Saving Behavior in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0684, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2008. "The Flow of Household Funds in Japan," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 4(1), pages 37-52, December.
    4. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2016. "Are the Japanese Unique? Evidence from Household Saving and Bequest Behavior," AGI Working Paper Series 2016-12, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    5. Dekle, Robert, 2004. "Financing consumption in an aging Japan: The role of foreign capital inflows and immigration," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 506-527, December.
    6. Charles Yuji Horioka & Takaaki Nomoto & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2013. "Why has Japan’s Massive Government Debt Not Wreaked Havoc (Yet)?," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201310, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    7. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2016. "Is Imbalances And Current Account Surpluses In Japan: In Memory Of Professor Ronald I. Mckinnon," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-17, June.
    8. repec:dpr:wpaper:0888 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko & Nomoto, Takaaki, 2015. "Explaining Foreign Holdings of Asia's Debt Securities: The Feldstein-Horioka Paradox Revisited," AGI Working Paper Series 2015-16, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    10. Campbell, David W., 2004. "Explaining Japan's saving rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 797-815, August.
    11. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2010. "The (dis)saving behavior of the aged in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 151-158, August.
    12. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2010. "Aging And Saving In Asia," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 46-55, February.
    13. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2009. "Do bequests increase or decrease wealth inequalities?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 23-25, April.
    14. Latsos Sophia & Schnabl Gunther, 2021. "Determinants of Japanese Household Saving Behavior in the Low-Interest Rate Environment," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 81-99, December.
    15. Horioka, Charles Yuji & Nomoto, Takaaki & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko, 2014. "Explaining Foreign Holdings of Asia’s Debt Securities," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 124, Asian Development Bank.
    16. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2020. "Does the Selfish Life-Cycle Model Apply in the Case of Japan?," AGI Working Paper Series 2020-04, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    17. Junya Hamaaki & Masahiro Hori & Keiko Murata, 2019. "The intra-family division of bequests and bequest motives: empirical evidence from a survey on Japanese households," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 309-346, January.
    18. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2014. "Why Do People Leave Bequests? For Love or Self-Interest? Evidence from a New International Survey of Bequest Plans," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201406, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    19. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "The Dissaving of the Aged Revisited: The Case of Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0665, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    20. Mauro Baranzini, 2005. "Modigliani's life-cycle theory of savings fifty years later," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 109-172.
    21. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "Do the Elderly Dissave in Japan?," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Librarian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isosujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.