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Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia

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  • Ross Guest
  • Robyn Swift

Abstract

This article assesses the effect of population ageing on housing consumption and house prices. Using two approaches, this article finds that the ageing of the population may cause average real house prices to be between 3 and 27 per cent lower than they otherwise would be over the period 2008–2050. The first approach is an econometric estimation of house prices for Australia over the period 1980–2008. The second approach is a simulation of a life cycle‐optimising model with representative overlapping generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Guest & Robyn Swift, 2010. "Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 240-253, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:43:y:2010:i:3:p:240-253
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8462.2010.00586.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. How Australia's ageing population could push house prices down
      by Ross Guest, Professor of Economics and National Senior Teaching Fellow at Griffith University in The Conversation on 2014-02-07 01:51:42

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    Cited by:

    1. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Xiaoping Zhou & Tong Lei & Yuyao Wang & Tianzheng Zhang & Yingjie Zhang & Yan Song & Yingxiang Zeng, 2022. "The spillover effect of senior neighbors on housing prices: Evidence from Beijing, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 1783-1812, December.
    3. Creina Day, 2018. "Australia's Growth in Households and House Prices," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(4), pages 502-511, December.
    4. Isil Erol & Umut Unal, 2023. "Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia's Interstate Migration Capital," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 308-327, September.
    5. Day, Creina, 2019. "House prices post-GFC: More household debt for longer," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-102.

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