IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/200651.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Westermann, Thomas
  • Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie
  • Rother, Philipp
  • Musso, Alberto
  • Maddaloni, Angela

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of future demographic trends for economic growth, financial markets and public finances. It shows that in the absence of reforms and responses by economic agents, the currently projected demographic trends imply a decline in average real GDP growth and a severe burden in terms of pay-as-you-go pension and health care systems. Population ageing will change the financial landscape, with a potentially larger role for financial intermediaries and asset prices. All this points to a need to closely monitor demographic change also from a monetary policy perspective. While population projections are surrounded by considerable uncertainty and the effects of demographic change tend to be drawn out, the magnitude of the potential effects calls for an early recognition of this issue. This paper provides some input to the examination of possible policy issues. JEL Classification: J11, O47

Suggested Citation

  • Westermann, Thomas & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie & Rother, Philipp & Musso, Alberto & Maddaloni, Angela, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 51, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:200651
    Note: 504287
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp51.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brand, Claus & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 3, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. González, Fernando & Coppens, François & Winkler, Gerhard, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Occasional Paper Series 65, European Central Bank.
    2. Etienne Farvaque & Jerome Hericourt & Gaël Lagadec, 2010. "Central bank independence and ageing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1167-1171.
    3. Hartmann, Philipp & Papaioannou, Elias & Lo Duca, Marco & Heider, Florian, 2007. "The role of financial markets and innovation in productivity and growth in Europe," Occasional Paper Series 72, European Central Bank.
    4. Winkler, Adalbert & Geis, André & Böwer, Uwe, 2007. "Commodity price fluctuations and their impact on monetary and fiscal policies in Western and Central Africa," Occasional Paper Series 60, European Central Bank.
    5. Sánchez Muñoz, Carlos & Israël, Jean-Marc, 2007. "Towards harmonised balance of payments and international investment position statistics - the experience of the European compilers," Occasional Paper Series 67, European Central Bank.
    6. Sturm, Michael & Gurtner, François, 2007. "Fiscal policy in Mediterranean countries: developments, structures and implications for monetary policy," Occasional Paper Series 69, European Central Bank.
    7. Van Rixtel, Adrian & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a Central Bank perspective," Occasional Paper Series 62, European Central Bank.
    8. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    9. Russo, Daniela & Caviglia, Giacomo & Papathanassiou, Chryssa & Rosati, Simonetta, 2007. "Prudential and oversight requirements for securities settlement," Occasional Paper Series 76, European Central Bank.
    10. Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(4), pages 642-680, December.
    11. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Bowles, Carlos & Friz, Roberta & Meyler, Aidan & Rautanen, Tuomas, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) - A review after eight years' experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
    12. di Mauro, Filippo & Baumann, Ursel, 2007. "Globalisation and euro area trade - interactions and challenges," Occasional Paper Series 55, European Central Bank.
    13. Picón Aguilar, Carmen & Damia, Violetta, 2006. "Quantitative quality indicators for statistics: an application to euro area balance of payment," Occasional Paper Series 54, European Central Bank.
    14. Turunen, Jarkko & Musso, Alberto & Stocker, Marc & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón, 2006. "Labour productivity developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 53, European Central Bank.
    15. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    16. Arratibel, Olga & Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand & Martin, Reiner & Przybyla, Marcin & Rawdanowicz, Lukasz & Serafini, Roberta & Zumer, Tina, 2007. "Determinants of growth in the central and eastern European EU member states - a production function approach," Occasional Paper Series 61, European Central Bank.
    17. Schmiedel, Heiko, 2007. "The economic impact of the Single Euro Payments Area," Occasional Paper Series 71, European Central Bank.
    18. Russo, Daniela & Rosati, Simonetta & Chan, Diana & Fontan, Florence, 2007. "The securities custody industry," Occasional Paper Series 68, European Central Bank.
    19. Thimann, Christian & Skala, Martin & Wölfinger, Regine, 2007. "The search for Columbus' egg: finding a new formula to determine quotas at the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 70, European Central Bank.
    20. Bindseil, Ulrich & Sotamaa, Kai & Amado, Ricardo & Honings, Noëlle & Chiappa, Gigliola & Boux, Bérénice & Föttinger, Wolfgang & Ledoyen, Pierre & Schwartzlose, Henrik & van der Hoorn, Han & Monar, Fer, 2007. "The use of portfolio credit risk models in central banks," Occasional Paper Series 64, European Central Bank.
    21. Aaron George, Grech, 2014. "Pension policy design: The core issues," MPRA Paper 53662, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    2. Anderton, Robert & di Mauro, Filippo & Moneta, Fabio, 2004. "Understanding the impact of the external dimension on the euro area: trade, capital flows and other international macroeconomic linkages," Occasional Paper Series 12, European Central Bank.
    3. Russo, Daniela & Hart, Terry L. & Malaguti, Maria Chiara & Papathanassiou, Chryssa, 2004. "Governance of securities clearing and settlement systems," Occasional Paper Series 21, European Central Bank.
    4. André Geis & Arnaud Mehl & Stefan Wredenborg, 2004. "The international role of the euro - evidence from bonds issued by non-euro area residents," Occasional Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    5. Wolswijk, Guido & de Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices," Occasional Paper Series 25, European Central Bank.
    6. Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2003. "An introduction to the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Occasional Paper Series 8, European Central Bank.
    7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Thimann, Christian & Drage, John & Nikitin, Minna & Just, Christian & Pauli, Rolf & Committeri, Marco & Weber, Pierre-François & Fernández de Lis, Santiago & von Stenglin, Stephan & Hollensen, Ole & B, 2005. "Managing financial crises in emerging market economies - experience with the involvement of private sector creditors," Occasional Paper Series 32, European Central Bank.
    9. Guido Wolswijk & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices," Occasional Paper Series 25, European Central Bank.
    10. González, Fernando & Coppens, François & Winkler, Gerhard, 2007. "The performance of credit rating systems in the assessment of collateral used in Eurosystem monetary policy operations," Occasional Paper Series 65, European Central Bank.
    11. repec:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:4:p:381-404 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "The role of money as an important pillar for monetary policy: the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Schuknecht, Ludger & Morris, Richard & Ongena, Hedwig, 2006. "The reform and implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Occasional Paper Series 47, European Central Bank.
    14. Thimann, Christian & Skala, Martin & Wölfinger, Regine, 2007. "The search for Columbus' egg: finding a new formula to determine quotas at the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 70, European Central Bank.
    15. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João & Manrique, Marta, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank.
    16. Karl Whelan & Filippo Altissimo & Evaggelia Georgiou & Teresa Sastre & Maria Teresa Valderrama & Gabriel Sterne & Marc Stocker & Mark Weth & Alpo Willman, 2005. "Wealth and asset price effects on economic activity," Open Access publications 10197/210, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    17. Dierick, Frank, 2004. "The supervision of mixed financial services groups in Europe," Occasional Paper Series 20, European Central Bank.
    18. Kai Carstensen & Jan Hagen & Oliver Hossfeld & Abelardo Salazar Neaves, 2009. "Money Demand Stability And Inflation Prediction In The Four Largest Emu Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, February.
    19. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The ECB's Two Pillars," CEPR Discussion Papers 3689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Mr. Zenon Kontolemis, 2002. "Money Demand in the Euro Area: Where Do We Stand (Today)?," IMF Working Papers 2002/185, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Christian Dreger & Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2019. "Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 599-615, October.
    22. Karl Whelan & Filippo Altissimo & Evaggelia Georgiou & Teresa Sastre & Maria Teresa Valderrama & Gabriel Sterne & Marc Stocker & Mark Weth & Alpo Willman, 2005. "Wealth and asset price effects on economic activity," Open Access publications 10197/210, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic developments; euro area; real GDP growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:200651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.