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Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area

Author

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  • Westermann, Thomas
  • Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie
  • Rother, Philipp
  • Musso, Alberto
  • Maddaloni, Angela

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of future demographic trends for economic growth, financial markets and public finances. It shows that in the absence of reforms and responses by economic agents, the currently projected demographic trends imply a decline in average real GDP growth and a severe burden in terms of pay-as-you-go pension and health care systems. Population ageing will change the financial landscape, with a potentially larger role for financial intermediaries and asset prices. All this points to a need to closely monitor demographic change also from a monetary policy perspective. While population projections are surrounded by considerable uncertainty and the effects of demographic change tend to be drawn out, the magnitude of the potential effects calls for an early recognition of this issue. This paper provides some input to the examination of possible policy issues. JEL Classification: J11, O47

Suggested Citation

  • Westermann, Thomas & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie & Rother, Philipp & Musso, Alberto & Maddaloni, Angela, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of demographic developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 51, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:200651
    Note: 504287
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbocp51.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brand, Claus & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 3, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Etienne Farvaque & Jerome Hericourt & Gaël Lagadec, 2010. "Central bank independence and ageing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1167-1171.
    3. Hartmann, Philipp & Papaioannou, Elias & Lo Duca, Marco & Heider, Florian, 2007. "The role of financial markets and innovation in productivity and growth in Europe," Occasional Paper Series 72, European Central Bank.
    4. Winkler, Adalbert & Geis, André & Böwer, Uwe, 2007. "Commodity price fluctuations and their impact on monetary and fiscal policies in Western and Central Africa," Occasional Paper Series 60, European Central Bank.
    5. Sánchez Muñoz, Carlos & Israël, Jean-Marc, 2007. "Towards harmonised balance of payments and international investment position statistics - the experience of the European compilers," Occasional Paper Series 67, European Central Bank.
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    7. Van Rixtel, Adrian & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a Central Bank perspective," Occasional Paper Series 62, European Central Bank.
    8. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    9. Russo, Daniela & Caviglia, Giacomo & Papathanassiou, Chryssa & Rosati, Simonetta, 2007. "Prudential and oversight requirements for securities settlement," Occasional Paper Series 76, European Central Bank.
    10. Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 54(4), pages 642-680, December.
    11. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Bowles, Carlos & Friz, Roberta & Meyler, Aidan & Rautanen, Tuomas, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) - A review after eight years' experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
    12. di Mauro, Filippo & Baumann, Ursel, 2007. "Globalisation and euro area trade - interactions and challenges," Occasional Paper Series 55, European Central Bank.
    13. Picón Aguilar, Carmen & Damia, Violetta, 2006. "Quantitative quality indicators for statistics: an application to euro area balance of payment," Occasional Paper Series 54, European Central Bank.
    14. Turunen, Jarkko & Musso, Alberto & Stocker, Marc & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón, 2006. "Labour productivity developments in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 53, European Central Bank.
    15. Shihong Zeng & Xinwei Zhang & Xiaowei Wang & Guowang Zeng, 2019. "Population Aging, Household Savings and Asset Prices: A Study Based on Urban Commercial Housing Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, June.
    16. Arratibel, Olga & Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand & Martin, Reiner & Przybyla, Marcin & Rawdanowicz, Lukasz & Serafini, Roberta & Zumer, Tina, 2007. "Determinants of growth in the central and eastern European EU member states - a production function approach," Occasional Paper Series 61, European Central Bank.
    17. Schmiedel, Heiko, 2007. "The economic impact of the Single Euro Payments Area," Occasional Paper Series 71, European Central Bank.
    18. Russo, Daniela & Rosati, Simonetta & Chan, Diana & Fontan, Florence, 2007. "The securities custody industry," Occasional Paper Series 68, European Central Bank.
    19. Thimann, Christian & Skala, Martin & Wölfinger, Regine, 2007. "The search for Columbus' egg: finding a new formula to determine quotas at the IMF," Occasional Paper Series 70, European Central Bank.
    20. Bindseil, Ulrich & Sotamaa, Kai & Amado, Ricardo & Honings, Noëlle & Chiappa, Gigliola & Boux, Bérénice & Föttinger, Wolfgang & Ledoyen, Pierre & Schwartzlose, Henrik & van der Hoorn, Han & Monar, Fer, 2007. "The use of portfolio credit risk models in central banks," Occasional Paper Series 64, European Central Bank.
    21. Aaron George, Grech, 2014. "Pension policy design: The core issues," MPRA Paper 53662, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic developments; euro area; real GDP growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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