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Full economic impacts of sea level rise: loss of productive resources and transport disruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Theodoros N. Chatzivasileiadis

    (Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Marjan W. Hofkes

    (Department of Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Onno J. Kuik

    (Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex
    Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam)

Abstract

We use the latest version of the GTAP multi-sector / multi-country model to assess the impact of sea level rise on transport infrastructure. Using DIVA output as input, our results indicate that Global GDP is depressed, but European GDP is less affected compared to the rest of the world. Sea level rise as projected in the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario causes global welfare losses of USD 61 billion in 2050. These losses are mainly caused by productivity losses in sea transport. We show that globally the welfare losses exceed the direct transportation cost changes by 30%, with substantial regional variation. Developed regions adjust better to increases in transportation costs than developing regions. Through transport, sea level rise causes significant changes to the global economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodoros N. Chatzivasileiadis & Marjan W. Hofkes & Onno J. Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol, 2016. "Full economic impacts of sea level rise: loss of productive resources and transport disruptions," Working Paper Series 09916, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:09916
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    File URL: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/economics/documents/wps-99-2016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis, 2017. "Quasi-random Monte Carlo application in CGE systematic sensitivity analysis," Papers 1709.09755, arXiv.org.
    2. T. Chatzivasileiadis & F. Estrada & M. W. Hofkes & R. S. J. Tol, 2019. "Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of the Full Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1183-1217, March.
    3. Nina Knittel & Martin W. Jury & Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Gabriel Bachner & Andrea K. Steiner, 2020. "A global analysis of heat-related labour productivity losses under climate change—implications for Germany’s foreign trade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 251-269, May.
    4. Tariqur Rahman Bhuiyan & Ah Choy Er & Nurfashareena Muhamad & Joy Jacqueline Pereira, 2021. "The socioeconomic impact of climate-related hazards: flash flood impact assessment in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1509-1538, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; computable general equilibrium; CGE; sea level rise; transportation disruptions; water transport;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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