IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v10y2022i20p3804-d943079.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Neural Network Model for Short-Term Prediction of Confirmed Cases in the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Miljana Milić

    (Faculty of Electronic Engineering, University of Niš, Aleksandra Medvedeva 14, 18000 Niš, Serbia)

  • Jelena Milojković

    (Faculty of Electronic Engineering, University of Niš, Aleksandra Medvedeva 14, 18000 Niš, Serbia)

  • Miljan Jeremić

    (Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Niš, Aleksandra Medvedeva 14, 18000 Niš, Serbia)

Abstract

COVID-19 is one of the largest issues that humanity still has to cope with and has an impact on the daily lives of billions of people. Researchers from all around the world have made various attempts to establish accurate mathematical models of COVID-19 spread. In many branches of science, it is difficult to make accurate predictions about short time series with extremely irregular behavior. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have lately been extensively used for such applications. Although ANNs may mimic the nonlinear behavior of short time series, they frequently struggle to handle all turbulences. Alternative methods must be used as a result. In order to reduce errors and boost forecasting confidence, a novel methodology that combines Time Delay Neural Networks is suggested in this work. Six separate datasets are used for its validation showing the number of confirmed daily COVID-19 infections in 2021 for six world countries. It is demonstrated that the method may greatly improve the individual networks’ forecasting accuracy independent of their topologies, which broadens the applicability of the approach. A series of additional predictive experiments involving state-of-the-art Extreme Learning Machine modeling were performed to quantitatively compare the accuracy of the proposed methodology with that of similar methodologies. It is shown that the forecasting accuracy of the system outperforms ELM modeling and is in the range of other state-of-the art solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Miljana Milić & Jelena Milojković & Miljan Jeremić, 2022. "Optimal Neural Network Model for Short-Term Prediction of Confirmed Cases in the COVID-19 Pandemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(20), pages 1-18, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:20:p:3804-:d:943079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/20/3804/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/20/3804/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lu He & Dezhong Kong & Zhen Lei, 2022. "Research on Vibration Propagation Law and Dynamic Effect of Bench Blasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-21, August.
    2. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    3. Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Street, Alexandre & Valladão, Davi & Vasconcelos, Gabriel & Zilberman, Eduardo, 2022. "Short-term Covid-19 forecast for latecomers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 467-488.
    4. Castillo, Oscar & Melin, Patricia, 2020. "Forecasting of COVID-19 time series for countries in the world based on a hybrid approach combining the fractal dimension and fuzzy logic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Asit Kumar Das & Debahuti Mishra & Kaberi Das & Pradeep Kumar Mallick & Sachin Kumar & Mikhail Zymbler & Hesham El-Sayed, 2022. "Prophesying the Short-Term Dynamics of the Crude Oil Future Price by Adopting the Survival of the Fittest Principle of Improved Grey Optimization and Extreme Learning Machine," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Chimmula, Vinay Kumar Reddy & Zhang, Lei, 2020. "Time series forecasting of COVID-19 transmission in Canada using LSTM networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Abdallah Alsayed & Hayder Sadir & Raja Kamil & Hasan Sari, 2020. "Prediction of Epidemic Peak and Infected Cases for COVID-19 Disease in Malaysia, 2020," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-15, June.
    8. Yongrui Qin & Meng Zhao & Qingcheng Lin & Xuefeng Li & Jing Ji, 2022. "Data-Driven Building Energy Consumption Prediction Model Based on VMD-SA-DBN," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(17), pages 1-10, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iloanusi, Ogechukwu & Ross, Arun, 2021. "Leveraging weather data for forecasting cases-to-mortality rates due to COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Çaparoğlu, Ömer Faruk & Ok, Yeşim & Tutam, Mahmut, 2021. "To restrict or not to restrict? Use of artificial neural network to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation policies: A case study of Turkey," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Wang, Peipei & Zheng, Xinqi & Ai, Gang & Liu, Dongya & Zhu, Bangren, 2020. "Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Balkin, Sandy, 2001. "On Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Neural Networks: P.H. Franses and P.V. Homelen, 1998, Applied Financial Economics, 8, 589-596," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 139-140.
    5. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    6. Daniel Buncic, 2012. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 399-426, August.
    7. Apostolos Ampountolas & Titus Nyarko Nde & Paresh Date & Corina Constantinescu, 2021. "A Machine Learning Approach for Micro-Credit Scoring," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Peng Zhu & Yuante Li & Yifan Hu & Qinyuan Liu & Dawei Cheng & Yuqi Liang, 2024. "LSR-IGRU: Stock Trend Prediction Based on Long Short-Term Relationships and Improved GRU," Papers 2409.08282, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    9. Ebrahimpour, Reza & Nikoo, Hossein & Masoudnia, Saeed & Yousefi, Mohammad Reza & Ghaemi, Mohammad Sajjad, 2011. "Mixture of MLP-experts for trend forecasting of time series: A case study of the Tehran stock exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 804-816, July.
    10. Hewamalage, Hansika & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bandara, Kasun, 2021. "Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 388-427.
    11. Leung, Philip C.M. & Lee, Eric W.M., 2013. "Estimation of electrical power consumption in subway station design by intelligent approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 634-643.
    12. Yulan Li & Kun Ma, 2022. "A Hybrid Model Based on Improved Transformer and Graph Convolutional Network for COVID-19 Forecasting," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-17, September.
    13. Zhao, Xinxing & Li, Kainan & Ang, Candice Ke En & Cheong, Kang Hao, 2023. "A deep learning based hybrid architecture for weekly dengue incidences forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Donya Rahmani & Saeed Heravi & Hossein Hassani & Mansi Ghodsi, 2016. "Forecasting time series with structural breaks with Singular Spectrum Analysis, using a general form of recurrent formula," Papers 1605.02188, arXiv.org.
    15. Wei Sun & Yujun He & Hong Chang, 2015. "Forecasting Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption for Power Generation Using QHSA-Based LSSVM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Saman, Corina, 2011. "Scenarios of the Romanian GDP Evolution With Neural Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-140, December.
    17. Ghiassi, M. & Saidane, H. & Zimbra, D.K., 2005. "A dynamic artificial neural network model for forecasting time series events," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 341-362.
    18. Barrow, Devon K., 2016. "Forecasting intraday call arrivals using the seasonal moving average method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 6088-6096.
    19. Jani, D.B. & Mishra, Manish & Sahoo, P.K., 2017. "Application of artificial neural network for predicting performance of solid desiccant cooling systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 352-366.
    20. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," AQR Working Papers 201312, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2013.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:20:p:3804-:d:943079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.