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Scenarios of the Romanian GDP Evolution With Neural Models

Author

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  • Saman, Corina

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Centre for Macroeconomic Modeling, NIER, Romanian Academy.)

Abstract

This paper aims to explore the nonlinear relation between investments and GDP. The method of neural network is used to construct two nonlinear models of GDP in relation to domestic investments, foreign direct investments and real interest rate. The results show that the two neural models present good performance measures on the dataset. The improved forecast accuracy may be capturing more fundamental non-linearities between investment and financial variables and the real output for a longer horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Saman, Corina, 2011. "Scenarios of the Romanian GDP Evolution With Neural Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-140, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:4:p:129-140
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_11/rjef4_2011p129-140.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jena, Pradyot Ranjan & Majhi, Ritanjali & Kalli, Rajesh & Managi, Shunsuke & Majhi, Babita, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on GDP of major economies: Application of the artificial neural network forecaster," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 324-339.
    2. Andrei, Dalina Maria, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments in Romania. A Structural and Dynamic View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-146, December.
    3. Chih-Chung Yang & Yungho Leu & Chien-Pang Lee, 2014. "A Dynamic Weighted Distancedbased Fuzzy Time Series Neural Network with Bootstrap Model for Option Price Forecasting," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 115-129, June.
    4. Mihaela Sterpu & Carmen Rocșoreanu & Georgeta Soava & Anca Mehedintu, 2023. "A Generalization of the Grey Lotka–Volterra Model and Application to GDP, Export, Import and Investment for the European Union," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-23, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; simulation; GDP; neural networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

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