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Establishment of the Baseline for the IWRM in the Ecuadorian Andean Basins: Land Use Change, Water Recharge, Meteorological Forecast and Hydrological Modeling

Author

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  • Christian Mera-Parra

    (Master’s in Water Resources, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, San Cayetano Alto s/n, Loja 1101608, Ecuador)

  • Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso

    (Master’s in Water Resources, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, San Cayetano Alto s/n, Loja 1101608, Ecuador
    Department of Geology and Mine and Civil Engineering (DGMIC), Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, San Cayetano Alto s/n, Loja 1101608, Ecuador)

  • Priscilla Massa-Sánchez

    (Master’s in Water Resources, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, San Cayetano Alto s/n, Loja 1101608, Ecuador
    Department of Economics, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja (UTPL), Loja 1101608, Ecuador)

  • Pablo Ochoa-Cueva

    (Master’s in Water Resources, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, San Cayetano Alto s/n, Loja 1101608, Ecuador
    Department of Biological and Agricultural Sciences, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, San Cayetano Alto, Loja 110107, Ecuador)

Abstract

This study was conducted in the Zamora Huayco (ZH) river basin, located in the inter-Andean region of southern Ecuador. The objective was to describe, through land use/land cover change (LUCC), the natural physical processes under current conditions and to project them to 2029. Moreover, temperature and precipitation forecasts were estimated to detail possible effects of climate change. Using remote sensing techniques, satellite images were processed to prepare a projection to 2029. Water recharge was estimated considering the effects of slope, groundcover, and soil texture. Flash floods were estimated using lumped models, concatenating the information to HEC RAS. Water availability was estimated with a semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT). Precipitation and temperature data were forecasted using autoregressive and exponential smoothing models. Under the forecast, forest and shrub covers show a growth of 6.6%, water recharge projects an increase of 7.16%. Flood flows suffer a reduction of up to 16.54%, and the flow regime with a 90% of probability of exceedance is 1.85% (7.72 l/s) higher for 2029 than for the 2019 scenario, so an improvement in flow regulation is evident. Forecasts show an increase in average temperature of 0.11 °C and 15.63% in extreme rainfall by 2029. Therefore, intervention strategies in Andean basins should be supported by prospective studies that use these key variables of the system for an integrated management of water resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Mera-Parra & Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Priscilla Massa-Sánchez & Pablo Ochoa-Cueva, 2021. "Establishment of the Baseline for the IWRM in the Ecuadorian Andean Basins: Land Use Change, Water Recharge, Meteorological Forecast and Hydrological Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:5:p:513-:d:552959
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Arianna Oñate-Paladines & Milton Collaguazo, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Soil Impermeability and Its Impact on the Hydrology of An Urban Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Christian Mera-Parra & Priscilla Massa-Sánchez & Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Pablo Ochoa-Cueva, 2022. "Territorial Prospective to Sustainability: Strategies for Future Successful of Water Resource Management on Andean Basins," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, July.
    3. Diana Marcela Ruíz Ordoñez & Yineth Viviana Camacho De Angulo & Edgar Leonairo Pencué Fierro & Apolinar Figueroa Casas, 2023. "Mapping Ecosystem Services in an Andean Water Supply Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, January.

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