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Proportional Variation of Potential Groundwater Recharge as a Result of Climate Change and Land-Use: A Study Case in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Guerrero-Morales

    (Centro de Ciencias de Desarrollo Regional, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Acapulco 39640, Mexico)

  • Carlos R. Fonseca

    (Instituto Interamericano de Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca 50100, Mexico)

  • Miguel A. Goméz-Albores

    (Instituto Interamericano de Tecnología y Ciencias del Agua, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México, Toluca 50100, Mexico)

  • María Laura Sampedro-Rosas

    (Centro de Ciencias de Desarrollo Regional, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Acapulco 39640, Mexico)

  • Sonia Emilia Silva-Gómez

    (Posgrado en Ciencias Ambientales, Instituto de Ciencias, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla 72570, Mexico)

Abstract

This work proposes a methodology whereby the selection of hydrologic and land-use cover change (LUCC) models allows an assessment of the proportional variation in potential groundwater recharge (PGR) due to both land-use cover change (LUCC) and some climate change scenarios for 2050. The simulation of PGR was made through a distributed model, based on empirical methods and the forecasting of LUCC stemming from a supervised classification with remote sensing techniques, both inside a Geographic Information System. Once the supervised classification was made, a Markov-based model was developed to predict LUCC to 2050. The method was applied in Acapulco, an important tourism center for Mexico. From 1986 to 2017, the urban area increased 5%, and by 2050 was predicted to cover 16%. In this period, a loss of 7 million m 3 of PGR was assumed to be caused by the estimated LUCC. From 2017 to 2050, this loss is expected to increase between 73 and 273 million m 3 depending on the considered climate change scenario, which is the equivalent amount necessary for satisfying the water needs of 6 million inhabitants. Therefore, modeling the variation in groundwater recharge can be an important tool for identifying water vulnerability, through both climate and land-use change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Guerrero-Morales & Carlos R. Fonseca & Miguel A. Goméz-Albores & María Laura Sampedro-Rosas & Sonia Emilia Silva-Gómez, 2020. "Proportional Variation of Potential Groundwater Recharge as a Result of Climate Change and Land-Use: A Study Case in Mexico," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-22, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:9:y:2020:i:10:p:364-:d:422519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Subham Mukherjee & Wiebke Bebermeier & Brigitta Schütt, 2018. "An Overview of the Impacts of Land Use Land Cover Changes (1980–2014) on Urban Water Security of Kolkata," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, July.
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    3. Stefano Salata & Carolina Giaimo & Carlo Alberto Barbieri & Gabriele Garnero, 2020. "The utilization of ecosystem services mapping in land use planning: the experience of LIFE SAM4CP project," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 63(3), pages 523-545, February.
    4. Jian Yin & Chesheng Zhan & Wen Ye, 2016. "An Experimental Study on Evapotranspiration Data Assimilation Based on the Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5263-5279, November.
    5. Russell Crosbie & Trevor Pickett & Freddie Mpelasoka & Geoff Hodgson & Stephen Charles & Olga Barron, 2013. "An assessment of the climate change impacts on groundwater recharge at a continental scale using a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of GCMs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 41-53, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Mera-Parra & Fernando Oñate-Valdivieso & Priscilla Massa-Sánchez & Pablo Ochoa-Cueva, 2021. "Establishment of the Baseline for the IWRM in the Ecuadorian Andean Basins: Land Use Change, Water Recharge, Meteorological Forecast and Hydrological Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Dong-jin Lee & Seong Woo Jeon, 2020. "Estimating Changes in Habitat Quality through Land-Use Predictions: Case Study of Roe Deer ( Capreolus pygargus tianschanicus ) in Jeju Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, December.

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