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Evaluation of Future Impacts of Climate Change, CO 2 , and Land Use Cover Change on Global Net Primary Productivity Using a Processed Model

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  • Xiao Hu

    (Center for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Yujie He

    (Center for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Ze Kong

    (Center for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Jiang Zhang

    (Center for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Minshu Yuan

    (Center for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Le Yu

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Changhui Peng

    (Center for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
    Institute of Environment Sciences, Department of Biology Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, Case Postale 8888, Succursale Centre-Ville, Montreal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada)

  • Qiuan Zhu

    (Center for Ecological Forecasting and Global Change, College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
    College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    National Earth System Science Data Center, National Science & Technology Infrastructure of China, Beijing 100101, China)

Abstract

Few studies have focused on the combined impact of climate change, CO 2 , and land-use cover change (LUCC), especially the evaluation of the impact of LUCC on net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, we simulated the overall NPP change trend from 2010 to 2100 and its response to climatic factors, CO 2 concentration, and LUCC conditions under three typical emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). (1) Under the predicted global pattern, NPP showed an increasing trend, with the most prominent variation at the end of the century. The increasing trend is mainly caused by the positive effect of CO 2 on NPP. However, the increasing trend of LUCC has only a small positive effect. (2) Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, from 2090 to 2100, CO 2 has the most significant positive impact on tropical areas, reaching 8.328 Pg C Yr −1 . Under the same conditions, climate change has the greatest positive impact on the northern high latitudes (1.175 Pg C Yr −1 ), but it has the greatest negative impact on tropical areas, reaching −4.842 Pg C Yr −1 . (3) The average contribution rate of LUCC to NPP was 6.14%. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, LUCC made the largest positive contribution on NPP (0.542 Pg C Yr −1 ) globally from 2010 to 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao Hu & Yujie He & Ze Kong & Jiang Zhang & Minshu Yuan & Le Yu & Changhui Peng & Qiuan Zhu, 2021. "Evaluation of Future Impacts of Climate Change, CO 2 , and Land Use Cover Change on Global Net Primary Productivity Using a Processed Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:4:p:365-:d:528904
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Christopher P. O. Reyer & Michael Flechsig & Petra Lasch-Born & Marcel Oijen, 2016. "Integrating parameter uncertainty of a process-based model in assessments of climate change effects on forest productivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 395-409, August.
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    1. Ruiming Cheng & Jing Zhang & Xinyue Wang & Zhidong Zhang, 2022. "Growth Suitability Evaluation of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr Based on Potential NPP under Different Climate Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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